Sat, Sep 2 2023
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Week 1
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🏟 JSU Stadium
Jacksonville, AL
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
East Tennessee State✈ 257 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Jacksonville State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -20.0
O/U 55.0
Bovada
East Tennessee State 2023 Schedule
East Tennessee State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | East Tennessee State at Jacksonville State | +20.0L3–49 | 55.0 | L3–49 | U | N |
Jacksonville State 2023 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Jacksonville State vs UTEP | +1.5W17–14 | 54.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State | -20.0W49–3 | 55.0 | W49–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina | +13.5L16–30 | 61.0 | L16–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan | -6.5W21–0 | 51.0 | W21–0 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/28 | Jacksonville State at Sam Houston | -6.5W35–28 | 36.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/4 | Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee | +2.5W45–30 | 52.0 | W45–30 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/10 | Jacksonville State vs Liberty | +7.0L13–31 | 59.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Tue 10/17 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | +7.5W20–17 | 60.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/25 | Jacksonville State at Florida International | -9.0W41–16 | 48.0 | W41–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Jacksonville State at South Carolina | +15.5L28–38 | 55.0 | L28–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/18 | Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech | -8.5W56–17 | 53.5 | W56–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Jacksonville State at New Mexico State | +2.0L17–20 | 48.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Jacksonville State vs Louisiana | -3.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
East Tennessee State Edge
East Tennessee State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +1.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓