Jacksonville State at Florida International Week 9 College Football Matchup Jacksonville State at Florida International Matchup - Week 9
Wed, Oct 25 2023 · Week 9 · 🏟 FIU Stadium Miami, FL · Turf · 23,500 cap
Jacksonville State✈ 644 mi+1 hr TZ
41 16
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Jacksonville State
31
Florida International
20
P&R Line Jacksonville State -11
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Jacksonville State -9 · O/U 48.0
Matchup Prediction
Jacksonville State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Jacksonville State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -9
O/U 48.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Jacksonville State 2023 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Jacksonville State vs UTEP+1.5W17–1454.5W17–14UY
Sat 9/2Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State-20.0W49–355.0W49–3UY
Sat 9/9Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina+13.5L16–3061.0L16–30UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/23Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan-6.5W21–051.0W21–0UY
Thu 9/28Jacksonville State at Sam Houston-6.5W35–2836.5W35–28OY
Wed 10/4Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee+2.5W45–3052.0W45–30OY
Tue 10/10Jacksonville State vs Liberty+7.0L13–3159.5L13–31UN
Tue 10/17Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky+7.5W20–1760.5W20–17UY
Wed 10/25Jacksonville State at Florida International-9.0W41–1648.0W41–16OY
Sat 11/4Jacksonville State at South Carolina+15.5L28–3855.0L28–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/18Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech-8.5W56–1753.5W56–17OY
Sat 11/25Jacksonville State at New Mexico State+2.0L17–2048.5L17–20UN
Sat 12/16Jacksonville State vs Louisiana-3.5W34–3158.5W34–31ON
Florida International 2023 Schedule
Florida International's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26Florida International at Louisiana Tech+12.0L17–2257.5L17–22UY
Sat 9/2Florida International vs Maine-15.0W14–1246.0W14–12UN
Sat 9/9Florida International vs North Texas+10.5W46–3951.5W46–39OY
Sat 9/16Florida International at UConn+7.0W24–1743.0W24–17UY
Sat 9/23Florida International vs Liberty+10.0L6–3854.0L6–38UN
— Bye Week —
Wed 10/4Florida International at New Mexico State+6.5L17–3449.5L17–34ON
Wed 10/11Florida International vs UTEP+1.5L14–2744.0L14–27UN
Wed 10/18Florida International at Sam Houston+6.0W33–2742.0W33–27OY
Wed 10/25Florida International vs Jacksonville State+9.0L16–4148.0L16–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/11Florida International at Middle Tennessee+10.5L6–4050.5L6–40UN
Sat 11/18Florida International at Arkansas+27.5L20–4449.5L20–44OY
Sat 11/25Florida International vs Western Kentucky+11.5L28–4154.0L28–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2023 season
Jacksonville State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Jacksonville State #103
+0.328
Florida International #117
+0.163
Jacksonville State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #119
+0.473
Florida International #102
+0.439
Jacksonville State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #37
0.177
Florida International #129
0.118
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Jacksonville State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Jacksonville State #79
+7.117
Florida International #113
+6.545
Jacksonville State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #65
+0.827
Florida International #120
+0.727
Jacksonville State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Jacksonville State #36
69.4
Florida International #130
74.2
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Jacksonville State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Jacksonville State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Jacksonville State
-2.7
Florida International
-4.1
Offense Rating
Jacksonville State
14.4
Florida International
11.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Jacksonville State
17.1
Florida International
15.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Jacksonville State #50
1.14
Florida International #124
0.29
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #28
1.00
Florida International #107
1.43
Jacksonville State +0.86
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Jacksonville State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Jacksonville State #1
40.8
Florida International #1
35.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Jacksonville State #55
38.6
Florida International #118
41.9
Jacksonville State +5.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Jacksonville State
1 — 3 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Jacksonville State
4.4 — 91.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Jacksonville State won by 25
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Jacksonville State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
11–3 (79%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Rod Smith Yr 1 #1
DC Zac Alley Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Florida International
Mike MacIntyre #1
7–9 (44%) · Yr 2 at school
OC David Yost Yr 2 #1
DC Jovan Dewitt Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself