Sat, Dec 16 2023
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Caesers Superdome
New Orleans, LA
·
Turf
·
76,468 cap
Jacksonville State✈ 368 miSame TZ
Louisiana✈ 118 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Jacksonville State,
while Game Control favors Louisiana.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Louisiana wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Jacksonville State -3.5
O/U 58.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Jacksonville State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Jacksonville State 2023 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Jacksonville State vs UTEP | +1.5W17–14 | 54.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State | -20.0W49–3 | 55.0 | W49–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina | +13.5L16–30 | 61.0 | L16–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan | -6.5W21–0 | 51.0 | W21–0 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/28 | Jacksonville State at Sam Houston | -6.5W35–28 | 36.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/4 | Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee | +2.5W45–30 | 52.0 | W45–30 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/10 | Jacksonville State vs Liberty | +7.0L13–31 | 59.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Tue 10/17 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | +7.5W20–17 | 60.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/25 | Jacksonville State at Florida International | -9.0W41–16 | 48.0 | W41–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Jacksonville State at South Carolina | +15.5L28–38 | 55.0 | L28–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/18 | Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech | -8.5W56–17 | 53.5 | W56–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Jacksonville State at New Mexico State | +2.0L17–20 | 48.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Jacksonville State vs Louisiana | -3.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
Louisiana 2023 Schedule
Louisiana's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Louisiana vs Northwestern State | -35.0W38–13 | 54.5 | W38–13 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Louisiana at Old Dominion | -6.0L31–38 | 51.0 | L31–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Louisiana at UAB | +2.0W41–21 | 60.0 | W41–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Louisiana vs Buffalo | -10.5W45–38 | 57.5 | W45–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/30 | Louisiana at Minnesota | +9.5L24–35 | 49.0 | L24–35 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Louisiana vs Texas State | -1.0W34–30 | 67.5 | W34–30 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Louisiana vs Georgia State | -3.0L17–20 | 62.0 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/28 | Louisiana at South Alabama | +11.5W33–20 | 55.0 | W33–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Louisiana at Arkansas State | -9.0L17–37 | 60.0 | L17–37 | U | N |
| Thu 11/9 | Louisiana vs Southern Miss | -8.5L31–34 | 51.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Louisiana at Troy | +17.5L24–31 | 47.5 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Louisiana vs UL Monroe | -12.5W52–21 | 53.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/16 | Louisiana vs Jacksonville State | +3.5L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
11–3 (79%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rod Smith
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
Louisiana
Michael Desormeaux #1
9–8 (53%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Tim Leger
Yr 2
#1
DC
LaMar Morgan
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓