Tue, Oct 17 2023
·
Week 8
·
🏟 JSU Stadium
Jacksonville, AL
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Western Kentucky✈ 222 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Jacksonville State,
while Game Control favors Western Kentucky.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Jacksonville State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -7.5
O/U 60.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Jacksonville State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Western Kentucky 2023 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/2 | Western Kentucky vs South Florida | -13.5W41–24 | 71.5 | W41–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Western Kentucky vs Houston Christian | -41.5W52–22 | 64.5 | W52–22 | O | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Western Kentucky at Ohio State | +29.5L10–63 | 65.0 | L10–63 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Western Kentucky at Troy | +3.5L24–27 | 57.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/28 | Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee | -6.5W31–10 | 61.0 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/5 | Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech | -6.0W35–28 | 59.0 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/17 | Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State | -7.5L17–20 | 60.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Tue 10/24 | Western Kentucky vs Liberty | +4.0L29–42 | 61.5 | L29–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/4 | Western Kentucky at UTEP | -9.5W21–13 | 54.5 | W21–13 | U | N |
| Sat 11/11 | Western Kentucky vs New Mexico State | -4.5L29–38 | 55.5 | L29–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/18 | Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston | -12.5W28–23 | 52.0 | W28–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/25 | Western Kentucky at Florida International | -11.5W41–28 | 54.0 | W41–28 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/18 | Western Kentucky vs Old Dominion | +4.0W38–35 | 49.0 | W38–35 | O | Y |
Jacksonville State 2023 Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/26 | Jacksonville State vs UTEP | +1.5W17–14 | 54.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/2 | Jacksonville State vs East Tennessee State | -20.0W49–3 | 55.0 | W49–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/9 | Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina | +13.5L16–30 | 61.0 | L16–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/23 | Jacksonville State vs Eastern Michigan | -6.5W21–0 | 51.0 | W21–0 | U | Y |
| Thu 9/28 | Jacksonville State at Sam Houston | -6.5W35–28 | 36.5 | W35–28 | O | Y |
| Wed 10/4 | Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee | +2.5W45–30 | 52.0 | W45–30 | O | Y |
| Tue 10/10 | Jacksonville State vs Liberty | +7.0L13–31 | 59.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Tue 10/17 | Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky | +7.5W20–17 | 60.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Wed 10/25 | Jacksonville State at Florida International | -9.0W41–16 | 48.0 | W41–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Jacksonville State at South Carolina | +15.5L28–38 | 55.0 | L28–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/18 | Jacksonville State vs Louisiana Tech | -8.5W56–17 | 53.5 | W56–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Jacksonville State at New Mexico State | +2.0L17–20 | 48.5 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 12/16 | Jacksonville State vs Louisiana | -3.5W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2023 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Jacksonville State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2023 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Jacksonville State Edge
Jacksonville State +0.37
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Kentucky Edge
Western Kentucky +11.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Western Kentucky
12.9 — 70.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Jacksonville State won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
34–22 (61%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Drew Hollingshead
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tyson Summers
Yr 2
#1
Jacksonville State
Rich Rodriguez #1
11–3 (79%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Rod Smith
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓