Sat, Oct 22 2022
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium
Las Cruces, NM
·
Turf
·
30,343 cap
San José State✈ 924 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
San José State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
San José State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San José State -21.0
O/U 43.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San José State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2022 Schedule
San José State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | San José State vs Portland State | -22.0W21–17 | 51.0 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | San José State at Auburn | +24.0L16–24 | 48.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | San José State vs Western Michigan | -6.5W34–6 | 49.0 | W34–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | San José State at Wyoming | -2.5W33–16 | 42.5 | W33–16 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/7 | San José State vs UNLV | -6.5W40–7 | 51.5 | W40–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | San José State at Fresno State | -7.0L10–17 | 47.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | San José State at New Mexico State | -21.0 | 43.0 | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/29 | San José State vs Nevada | -24.5W35–28 | 44.5 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | San José State vs Colorado State | -24.0W28–16 | 44.5 | W28–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | San José State at San Diego State | -2.5L27–43 | 41.0 | L27–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | San José State at Utah State | +1.0L31–35 | 51.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | San José State vs Hawai'i | -15.5W27–14 | 58.5 | W27–14 | U | N |
| Tue 12/20 | San José State vs Eastern Michigan | -3.5L27–41 | 54.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
New Mexico State 2022 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | New Mexico State vs Nevada | +7.0L12–23 | 48.0 | L12–23 | U | N |
| Thu 9/1 | New Mexico State at Minnesota | +36.0L0–38 | 52.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | New Mexico State at UTEP | +17.0L13–20 | 46.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | New Mexico State at Wisconsin | +38.0L7–66 | 45.5 | L7–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | New Mexico State vs Hawai'i | -4.5W45–26 | 53.0 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | -15.0L7–21 | 54.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | New Mexico State vs New Mexico | +7.0W21–9 | 38.5 | W21–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | New Mexico State vs San José State | +21.0 | 43.0 | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/29 | New Mexico State at Massachusetts | -1.0W23–13 | 39.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | New Mexico State vs Lamar | -22.0W51–14 | 48.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | New Mexico State at Missouri | +29.0L14–45 | 46.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +24.0W49–14 | 51.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | New Mexico State vs Valparaiso | -31.5W65–3 | 55.0 | W65–3 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/26 | New Mexico State vs Bowling Green | +3.0W24–19 | 51.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San José State Edge
San José State +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San José State Edge
San José State +14.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
20–37 (35%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 2
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 2
#1
New Mexico State
Jerry Kill #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Dreiling
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓