Sun, Oct 16 2022
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium
Las Cruces, NM
·
Turf
·
30,343 cap
New Mexico✈ 192 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors New Mexico State,
while Game Control favors New Mexico.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
New Mexico wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
New Mexico -7
O/U 38.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → New Mexico State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2022 Schedule
New Mexico's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | New Mexico vs Maine | -6.0W41–0 | 42.5 | W41–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/9 | New Mexico vs Boise State | +17.0L14–31 | 43.5 | L14–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | New Mexico vs UTEP | +2.0W27–10 | 38.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | New Mexico at LSU | +31.5L0–38 | 44.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Fri 9/30 | New Mexico at UNLV | +14.0L20–31 | 44.0 | L20–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | New Mexico vs Wyoming | +3.0L14–27 | 37.0 | L14–27 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | New Mexico at New Mexico State | -7.0L9–21 | 38.5 | L9–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | New Mexico vs Fresno State | +9.5L9–41 | 40.0 | L9–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | New Mexico at Utah State | +14.5L10–27 | 42.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | New Mexico at Air Force | +21.0L3–35 | 37.5 | L3–35 | O | N |
| Fri 11/18 | New Mexico vs San Diego State | +15.0L10–34 | 36.0 | L10–34 | O | N |
| Fri 11/25 | New Mexico at Colorado State | +7.5L0–17 | 36.0 | L0–17 | U | N |
New Mexico State 2022 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | New Mexico State vs Nevada | +7.0L12–23 | 48.0 | L12–23 | U | N |
| Thu 9/1 | New Mexico State at Minnesota | +36.0L0–38 | 52.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | New Mexico State at UTEP | +17.0L13–20 | 46.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | New Mexico State at Wisconsin | +38.0L7–66 | 45.5 | L7–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | New Mexico State vs Hawai'i | -4.5W45–26 | 53.0 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | -15.0L7–21 | 54.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | New Mexico State vs New Mexico | +7.0W21–9 | 38.5 | W21–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | New Mexico State vs San José State | +21.0 | 43.0 | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/29 | New Mexico State at Massachusetts | -1.0W23–13 | 39.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | New Mexico State vs Lamar | -22.0W51–14 | 48.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | New Mexico State at Missouri | +29.0L14–45 | 46.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +24.0W49–14 | 51.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | New Mexico State vs Valparaiso | -31.5W65–3 | 55.0 | W65–3 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/26 | New Mexico State vs Bowling Green | +3.0W24–19 | 51.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +0.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +22.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
New Mexico State
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
New Mexico State
54.6 — 30.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
New Mexico State won by 12
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Danny Gonzales #1
5–14 (26%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Derek Warehime
Yr 1
#1
DC
Rocky Long
Yr 2
#1
New Mexico State
Jerry Kill #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Dreiling
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓