Sat, Sep 10 2022
·
Week 2
·
🏟 Jordan-Hare Stadium
Auburn, AL
·
Turf
·
87,451 cap
San José State✈ 2,072 mi+2 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Auburn wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Auburn -24
O/U 48.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San José State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
San José State 2022 Schedule
San José State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | San José State vs Portland State | -22.0W21–17 | 51.0 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | San José State at Auburn | +24.0L16–24 | 48.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | San José State vs Western Michigan | -6.5W34–6 | 49.0 | W34–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | San José State at Wyoming | -2.5W33–16 | 42.5 | W33–16 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/7 | San José State vs UNLV | -6.5W40–7 | 51.5 | W40–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | San José State at Fresno State | -7.0L10–17 | 47.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | San José State at New Mexico State | -21.0 | 43.0 | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/29 | San José State vs Nevada | -24.5W35–28 | 44.5 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | San José State vs Colorado State | -24.0W28–16 | 44.5 | W28–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | San José State at San Diego State | -2.5L27–43 | 41.0 | L27–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | San José State at Utah State | +1.0L31–35 | 51.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | San José State vs Hawai'i | -15.5W27–14 | 58.5 | W27–14 | U | N |
| Tue 12/20 | San José State vs Eastern Michigan | -3.5L27–41 | 54.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
Auburn 2022 Schedule
Auburn's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Auburn vs Mercer | -30.0W42–16 | 51.5 | W42–16 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Auburn vs San José State | -24.0W24–16 | 48.5 | W24–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Auburn vs Penn State | +2.5L12–41 | 47.5 | L12–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Auburn vs Missouri | -7.5W17–14 | 51.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Auburn vs LSU | +8.0L17–21 | 44.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Auburn at Georgia | +27.5L10–42 | 49.5 | L10–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Auburn at Ole Miss | +15.5L34–48 | 55.5 | L34–48 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Auburn vs Arkansas | +4.0L27–41 | 60.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Auburn at Mississippi State | +12.5L33–39 | 50.5 | L33–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Auburn vs Texas A&M | -1.5W13–10 | 48.0 | W13–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Auburn vs Western Kentucky | -5.0W41–17 | 54.0 | W41–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Auburn at Alabama | +22.0L27–49 | 51.0 | L27–49 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San José State Edge
San José State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +25.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Auburn
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Auburn
46.3 — 19.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Auburn won by 8
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Auburn with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
20–37 (35%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 2
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 2
#1
Auburn
Bryan Harsin #1
6–7 (46%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Eric Kiesau
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeff Schmedding
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓