San José State at San Diego State Week 11 College Football Matchup San José State at San Diego State Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 13 2022 · Week 11 · 🏟 Snapdragon Stadium San Diego, CA · Turf · 35,000 cap
San José State✈ 412 miSame TZ
27 43
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
20
SDSU +2.5
San Diego State
23
P&R Line San Diego State -2.5
P&R Total O/U 43
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas San José State -2.5 · O/U 41.0
Matchup Prediction
San José State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
San José State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
San José State -2.5
O/U 41.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 San Diego State 2nd straight Home Game
San José State 2022 Schedule
San José State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1San José State vs Portland State-22.0W21–1751.0W21–17UN
Sat 9/10San José State at Auburn+24.0L16–2448.5L16–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24San José State vs Western Michigan-6.5W34–649.0W34–6UY
Sat 10/1San José State at Wyoming-2.5W33–1642.5W33–16OY
Fri 10/7San José State vs UNLV-6.5W40–751.5W40–7UY
Sat 10/15San José State at Fresno State-7.0L10–1747.0L10–17UN
Sat 10/22San José State at New Mexico State-21.043.0
Sat 10/29San José State vs Nevada-24.5W35–2844.5W35–28ON
Sat 11/5San José State vs Colorado State-24.0W28–1644.5W28–16UN
Sat 11/12San José State at San Diego State-2.5L27–4341.0L27–43ON
Sat 11/19San José State at Utah State+1.0L31–3551.0L31–35ON
Sat 11/26San José State vs Hawai'i-15.5W27–1458.5W27–14UN
Tue 12/20San José State vs Eastern Michigan-3.5L27–4154.0L27–41ON
San Diego State 2022 Schedule
San Diego State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3San Diego State vs Arizona-6.0L20–3846.5L20–38ON
Sat 9/10San Diego State vs Idaho State-33.5W38–750.5W38–7UN
Sat 9/17San Diego State at Utah+21.5L7–3548.0L7–35UN
Sat 9/24San Diego State vs Toledo+2.5W17–1444.5W17–14UY
Fri 9/30San Diego State at Boise State+6.0L13–3538.0L13–35ON
Sat 10/8San Diego State vs Hawai'i-23.5W16–1448.5W16–14UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22San Diego State at Nevada-7.5W23–736.0W23–7UY
Sat 10/29San Diego State at Fresno State+10.0L28–3243.5L28–32OY
Sat 11/5San Diego State vs UNLV-5.0W14–1047.0W14–10UN
Sat 11/12San Diego State vs San José State+2.5W43–2741.0W43–27OY
Fri 11/18San Diego State at New Mexico-15.0W34–1036.0W34–10OY
Sat 11/26San Diego State vs Air Force+2.0L3–1343.5L3–13UN
Sat 12/24San Diego State vs Middle Tennessee-7.0L23–2547.0L23–25ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
San Diego State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State
+0.236
San Diego State
+0.293
San Diego State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State
+0.441
San Diego State
+0.533
San Diego State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State
0.187
San Diego State
0.190
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San Diego State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State
+7.404
San Diego State
+6.344
San José State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State
+0.825
San Diego State
+0.785
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State
68.6
San Diego State
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
San Diego State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
San Diego State
2.6
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
San Diego State
15.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
San Diego State
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #95
1.14
San Diego State #98
0.38
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #44
0.14
San Diego State #67
1.00
San José State +0.77
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
64.6
San Diego State #1
52.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #35
18.5
San Diego State #54
32.5
San José State +12.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San Diego State
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
San Diego State
61.1 — 26.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
San Diego State won by 16
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
20–37 (35%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San Diego State
Brady Hoke #1
16–6 (73%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Jeff Hecklinski Yr 2 #1
DC Kurt Mattix Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself