Sat, Sep 17 2022
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Camp Randall Stadium
Madison, WI
·
Turf
·
80,321 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,201 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Wisconsin wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Wisconsin -38
O/U 45.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Wisconsin
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2022 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | New Mexico State vs Nevada | +7.0L12–23 | 48.0 | L12–23 | U | N |
| Thu 9/1 | New Mexico State at Minnesota | +36.0L0–38 | 52.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | New Mexico State at UTEP | +17.0L13–20 | 46.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | New Mexico State at Wisconsin | +38.0L7–66 | 45.5 | L7–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | New Mexico State vs Hawai'i | -4.5W45–26 | 53.0 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | -15.0L7–21 | 54.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | New Mexico State vs New Mexico | +7.0W21–9 | 38.5 | W21–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | New Mexico State vs San José State | +21.0 | 43.0 | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/29 | New Mexico State at Massachusetts | -1.0W23–13 | 39.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | New Mexico State vs Lamar | -22.0W51–14 | 48.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | New Mexico State at Missouri | +29.0L14–45 | 46.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +24.0W49–14 | 51.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | New Mexico State vs Valparaiso | -31.5W65–3 | 55.0 | W65–3 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/26 | New Mexico State vs Bowling Green | +3.0W24–19 | 51.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
Wisconsin 2022 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Wisconsin vs Illinois State | -36.5W38–0 | 42.5 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Wisconsin vs Washington State | -17.5L14–17 | 48.5 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Wisconsin vs New Mexico State | -38.0W66–7 | 45.5 | W66–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Wisconsin at Ohio State | +19.0L21–52 | 56.5 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Wisconsin vs Illinois | -6.5L10–34 | 43.0 | L10–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Wisconsin at Northwestern | -10.0W42–7 | 44.5 | W42–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Wisconsin at Michigan State | -7.0L28–34 | 49.5 | L28–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Wisconsin vs Purdue | -1.5W35–24 | 51.5 | W35–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Wisconsin vs Maryland | -5.0W23–10 | 47.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Wisconsin at Iowa | +1.0L10–24 | 35.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Wisconsin at Nebraska | -10.0W15–14 | 40.5 | W15–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Wisconsin vs Minnesota | -3.0L16–23 | 37.0 | L16–23 | O | N |
| Tue 12/27 | Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State | -5.0W24–17 | 45.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Wisconsin
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Wisconsin
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Wisconsin
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wisconsin Edge
Wisconsin +70.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Wisconsin
5 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Wisconsin
99.7 — 0.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wisconsin won by 59
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wisconsin with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Jerry Kill #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 1
#1
DC
Nate Dreiling
Yr 1
#1
Wisconsin
Paul Chryst #1
65–23 (74%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Bobby Engram
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim Leonhard
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓