Eastern Michigan at San José State Week 1 College Football Matchup Eastern Michigan at San José State Matchup - Week 1
Tue, Dec 20 2022 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Albertsons Stadium Boise, ID · Turf · 36,387 cap
Eastern Michigan✈ 1,638 mi-2 hr TZ San José State✈ 526 mi+1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
41 27
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Eastern Michigan
26
EMU +3.5
San José State
29
P&R Line San José State -3
P&R Total O/U 54
Confidence 90 High
Vegas San José State -3.5 · O/U 54.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
San José State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
San José State -3.5
O/U 54.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San José State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 San José State 2nd straight Home Game
Eastern Michigan 2022 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Eastern Michigan vs Eastern Kentucky-10.5W42–3457.5W42–34ON
Sat 9/10Eastern Michigan at Louisiana+11.0L21–4956.0L21–49ON
Sat 9/17Eastern Michigan at Arizona State+20.5W30–2156.5W30–21UY
Sat 9/24Eastern Michigan vs Buffalo-6.5L31–5057.5L31–50ON
Sat 10/1Eastern Michigan vs Massachusetts-20.0W20–1353.0W20–13UN
Sat 10/8Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan+4.5W45–2355.5W45–23OY
Sat 10/15Eastern Michigan vs Northern Illinois-3.5L10–3964.5L10–39UN
Sat 10/22Eastern Michigan at Ball State+2.5W20–1657.5W20–16UY
Sat 10/29Eastern Michigan vs Toledo+4.0L24–2754.0L24–27UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/8Eastern Michigan at Akron-6.5W34–2857.0W34–28ON
Wed 11/16Eastern Michigan at Kent State+7.5W31–2460.0W31–24UY
Fri 11/25Eastern Michigan vs Central Michigan-1.0W38–1953.5W38–19OY
Tue 12/20Eastern Michigan vs San José State+3.5W41–2754.0W41–27OY
San José State 2022 Schedule
San José State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1San José State vs Portland State-22.0W21–1751.0W21–17UN
Sat 9/10San José State at Auburn+24.0L16–2448.5L16–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24San José State vs Western Michigan-6.5W34–649.0W34–6UY
Sat 10/1San José State at Wyoming-2.5W33–1642.5W33–16OY
Fri 10/7San José State vs UNLV-6.5W40–751.5W40–7UY
Sat 10/15San José State at Fresno State-7.0L10–1747.0L10–17UN
Sat 10/22San José State at New Mexico State-21.043.0
Sat 10/29San José State vs Nevada-24.5W35–2844.5W35–28ON
Sat 11/5San José State vs Colorado State-24.0W28–1644.5W28–16UN
Sat 11/12San José State at San Diego State-2.5L27–4341.0L27–43ON
Sat 11/19San José State at Utah State+1.0L31–3551.0L31–35ON
Sat 11/26San José State vs Hawai'i-15.5W27–1458.5W27–14UN
Tue 12/20San José State vs Eastern Michigan-3.5L27–4154.0L27–41ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Eastern Michigan
+0.383
San José State
+0.393
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan
+0.572
San José State
+0.571
Eastern Michigan Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan
0.178
San José State
0.187
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Eastern Michigan
+7.589
San José State
+8.728
San José State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan
+0.860
San José State
+0.891
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Eastern Michigan
68.4
San José State
68.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Eastern Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Eastern Michigan Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Eastern Michigan
-8.5
San José State
-19.7
Offense Rating
Eastern Michigan
10.2
San José State
6.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Eastern Michigan
18.7
San José State
26.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Eastern Michigan #47
1.00
San José State #95
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #65
1.08
San José State #44
0.50
Eastern Michigan +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Eastern Michigan #1
45.5
San José State #1
60.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Eastern Michigan #62
36.2
San José State #35
24.4
San José State +14.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
37–57 (39%) · Yr 9 at school
OC Chris Creighton Yr 2 #1
DC Neal Neathery Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
20–37 (35%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself