New Mexico State at Massachusetts Week 9 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Massachusetts Matchup - Week 9
Sat, Oct 29 2022 · Week 9 · 🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium Hadley, MA · Turf · 17,000 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,988 mi+2 hr TZ
23 13
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
28
NMSU -1
Massachusetts
15
P&R Line New Mexico State -12.5
P&R Total O/U 43
Confidence 86 High
Vegas New Mexico State -1 · O/U 39.0
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor New Mexico State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
New Mexico State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
New Mexico State -1
O/U 39.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → New Mexico State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Massachusetts Coming off BYE
New Mexico State 2022 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27New Mexico State vs Nevada+7.0L12–2348.0L12–23UN
Thu 9/1New Mexico State at Minnesota+36.0L0–3852.5L0–38UN
Sat 9/10New Mexico State at UTEP+17.0L13–2046.5L13–20UY
Sat 9/17New Mexico State at Wisconsin+38.0L7–6645.5L7–66ON
Sat 9/24New Mexico State vs Hawai'i-4.5W45–2653.0W45–26OY
Sat 10/1New Mexico State vs Florida International-15.0L7–2154.0L7–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/15New Mexico State vs New Mexico+7.0W21–938.5W21–9UY
Sat 10/22New Mexico State vs San José State+21.043.0
Sat 10/29New Mexico State at Massachusetts-1.0W23–1339.0W23–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/12New Mexico State vs Lamar-22.0W51–1448.5W51–14OY
Sat 11/19New Mexico State at Missouri+29.0L14–4546.5L14–45ON
Sat 11/26New Mexico State at Liberty+24.0W49–1451.0W49–14OY
Sat 12/3New Mexico State vs Valparaiso-31.5W65–355.0W65–3OY
Mon 12/26New Mexico State vs Bowling Green+3.0W24–1951.0W24–19UY
Massachusetts 2022 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Massachusetts at Tulane+28.5L10–4259.0L10–42UN
Sat 9/10Massachusetts at Toledo+28.0L10–5549.0L10–55ON
Sat 9/17Massachusetts vs Stony Brook-1.0W20–344.5W20–3UY
Sat 9/24Massachusetts at Temple+10.0L0–2844.0L0–28UN
Sat 10/1Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan+20.0L13–2053.0L13–20UY
Sat 10/8Massachusetts vs Liberty+22.5L24–4245.5L24–42OY
Sat 10/15Massachusetts vs Buffalo+17.0L7–3447.5L7–34UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Massachusetts vs New Mexico State+1.0L13–2339.0L13–23UN
Fri 11/4Massachusetts at UConn+15.0L10–2739.5L10–27UN
Sat 11/12Massachusetts at Arkansas State+17.0L33–3549.0L33–35OY
Sat 11/19Massachusetts at Texas A&M+32.0L3–2046.0L3–20UY
Sat 11/26Massachusetts vs Army+20.0L7–4445.5L7–44ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
New Mexico State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State
+0.378
Massachusetts
+0.172
New Mexico State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
+0.540
Massachusetts
+0.220
New Mexico State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
0.168
Massachusetts
0.197
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Massachusetts Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
+7.778
Massachusetts
+6.117
New Mexico State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State
+0.778
Massachusetts
+0.754
New Mexico State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State
71.3
Massachusetts
72.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
New Mexico State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
New Mexico State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.8
Massachusetts
-27.8
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Massachusetts
1.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.1
Massachusetts
29.1
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? New Mexico State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #126
0.57
Massachusetts #121
0.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #130
1.71
Massachusetts #125
2.33
New Mexico State +0.24
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? New Mexico State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
25.4
Massachusetts #1
21.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #90
65.2
Massachusetts #131
69.5
New Mexico State +3.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on New Mexico State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Jerry Kill #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Nate Dreiling Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Massachusetts
Don Brown #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Steve Casula Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Dudzinski Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself