New Mexico State at Liberty Week 13 College Football Matchup New Mexico State at Liberty Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 26 2022 · Week 13 · 🏟 Williams Stadium Lynchburg, VA · Turf · 19,200 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,596 mi+2 hr TZ
49 14
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
New Mexico State
17
Liberty
33
P&R Line Liberty -16.5
P&R Total O/U 50
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Liberty -24.0 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Liberty has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Liberty entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Liberty wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Liberty wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Liberty -24.0
O/U 51.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Liberty · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Liberty 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 New Mexico State 2nd straight Road Game
New Mexico State 2022 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27New Mexico State vs Nevada+7.0L12–2348.0L12–23UN
Thu 9/1New Mexico State at Minnesota+36.0L0–3852.5L0–38UN
Sat 9/10New Mexico State at UTEP+17.0L13–2046.5L13–20UY
Sat 9/17New Mexico State at Wisconsin+38.0L7–6645.5L7–66ON
Sat 9/24New Mexico State vs Hawai'i-4.5W45–2653.0W45–26OY
Sat 10/1New Mexico State vs Florida International-15.0L7–2154.0L7–21UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/15New Mexico State vs New Mexico+7.0W21–938.5W21–9UY
Sat 10/22New Mexico State vs San José State+21.043.0
Sat 10/29New Mexico State at Massachusetts-1.0W23–1339.0W23–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/12New Mexico State vs Lamar-22.0W51–1448.5W51–14OY
Sat 11/19New Mexico State at Missouri+29.0L14–4546.5L14–45ON
Sat 11/26New Mexico State at Liberty+24.0W49–1451.0W49–14OY
Sat 12/3New Mexico State vs Valparaiso-31.5W65–355.0W65–3OY
Mon 12/26New Mexico State vs Bowling Green+3.0W24–1951.0W24–19UY
Liberty 2022 Schedule
Liberty's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Liberty at Southern Miss-3.5W29–2750.0W29–27ON
Sat 9/10Liberty vs UAB+6.0W21–1450.0W21–14UY
Sat 9/17Liberty at Wake Forest+17.5L36–3764.0L36–37OY
Sat 9/24Liberty vs Akron-26.5W21–1252.5W21–12UN
Sat 10/1Liberty at Old Dominion-3.5W38–2448.0W38–24OY
Sat 10/8Liberty at Massachusetts-22.5W42–2445.5W42–24ON
Sat 10/15Liberty vs Gardner-Webb-24.5W21–2055.0W21–20UN
Sat 10/22Liberty vs BYU+7.0W41–1458.0W41–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/5Liberty at Arkansas+14.5W21–1961.5W21–19UY
Sat 11/12Liberty at UConn-13.5L33–3645.0L33–36ON
Sat 11/19Liberty vs Virginia Tech-10.5L22–2346.0L22–23UN
Sat 11/26Liberty vs New Mexico State-24.0L14–4951.0L14–49ON
Tue 12/20Liberty vs Toledo+4.0L19–2151.5L19–21UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Liberty PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Liberty
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
New Mexico State
+0.279
Liberty
+0.315
Liberty Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
+0.438
Liberty
+0.428
New Mexico State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
0.168
Liberty
0.205
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Liberty Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
New Mexico State
+7.741
Liberty
+7.469
New Mexico State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
New Mexico State
+0.739
Liberty
+0.844
Liberty Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
New Mexico State
71.3
Liberty
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Liberty Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Liberty Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
New Mexico State
-14.9
Liberty
-2.9
Offense Rating
New Mexico State
6.3
Liberty
14.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
New Mexico State
21.2
Liberty
17.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Liberty Edge
Avg sequences created per game
New Mexico State #126
0.56
Liberty #19
1.27
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #130
1.56
Liberty #24
0.82
Liberty +0.72
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Liberty Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
New Mexico State #1
31.3
Liberty #1
57.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
New Mexico State #90
58.5
Liberty #43
24.8
Liberty +25.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Liberty with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Jerry Kill #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tim Beck Yr 1 #1
DC Nate Dreiling Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Liberty
Hugh Freeze #1
26–11 (70%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Kent Austin Yr 2 #1
DC Josh Aldridge Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself