Sun, Oct 30 2022
·
Week 9
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
San Jose, CA
·
Turf
·
30,456 cap
Nevada✈ 189 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
San José State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
San José State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
San José State -24.5
O/U 44.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San José State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Nevada 2022 Schedule
Nevada's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Nevada at New Mexico State | -7.0W23–12 | 48.0 | W23–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/3 | Nevada vs Texas State | +2.0W38–14 | 51.5 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Nevada vs Incarnate Word | -4.0L41–55 | 61.5 | L41–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Nevada at Iowa | +24.0L0–27 | 39.0 | L0–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Nevada at Air Force | +24.0L20–48 | 47.0 | L20–48 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/7 | Nevada vs Colorado State | -3.5L14–17 | 44.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Nevada at Hawai'i | -6.5L16–31 | 51.5 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Nevada vs San Diego State | +7.5L7–23 | 36.0 | L7–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Nevada at San José State | +24.5L28–35 | 44.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Nevada vs Boise State | +21.0L3–41 | 47.0 | L3–41 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Nevada vs Fresno State | +22.5L14–41 | 54.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Nevada at UNLV | +12.5L22–27 | 49.0 | L22–27 | U | Y |
San José State 2022 Schedule
San José State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | San José State vs Portland State | -22.0W21–17 | 51.0 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | San José State at Auburn | +24.0L16–24 | 48.5 | L16–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | San José State vs Western Michigan | -6.5W34–6 | 49.0 | W34–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | San José State at Wyoming | -2.5W33–16 | 42.5 | W33–16 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/7 | San José State vs UNLV | -6.5W40–7 | 51.5 | W40–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | San José State at Fresno State | -7.0L10–17 | 47.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | San José State at New Mexico State | -21.0 | 43.0 | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/29 | San José State vs Nevada | -24.5W35–28 | 44.5 | W35–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | San José State vs Colorado State | -24.0W28–16 | 44.5 | W28–16 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | San José State at San Diego State | -2.5L27–43 | 41.0 | L27–43 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | San José State at Utah State | +1.0L31–35 | 51.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | San José State vs Hawai'i | -15.5W27–14 | 58.5 | W27–14 | U | N |
| Tue 12/20 | San José State vs Eastern Michigan | -3.5L27–41 | 54.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
San José State Edge
San José State +0.63
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
San José State Edge
San José State +36.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
San José State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
San José State
56.1 — 22.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
San José State won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on San José State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nevada
Ken Wilson #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Derek Sage
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kwame Agyeman
Yr 1
#1
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
20–37 (35%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kevin McGiven
Yr 2
#1
DC
Derrick Odum
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓