San José State at Utah State Week 12 College Football Matchup San José State at Utah State Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 20 2022 · Week 12 · 🏟 Romney Stadium Logan, UT · Turf · 25,513 cap
San José State✈ 616 mi+1 hr TZ
31 35
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
San José State
29
SJSU +1
Utah State
22
P&R Line San José State -6.5
P&R Total O/U 51
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Utah State -1 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
San José State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor San José State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
San José State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
San José State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Utah State -1
O/U 51.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → San José State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 San José State 2nd straight Road Game
San José State 2022 Schedule
San José State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1San José State vs Portland State-22.0W21–1751.0W21–17UN
Sat 9/10San José State at Auburn+24.0L16–2448.5L16–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24San José State vs Western Michigan-6.5W34–649.0W34–6UY
Sat 10/1San José State at Wyoming-2.5W33–1642.5W33–16OY
Fri 10/7San José State vs UNLV-6.5W40–751.5W40–7UY
Sat 10/15San José State at Fresno State-7.0L10–1747.0L10–17UN
Sat 10/22San José State at New Mexico State-21.043.0
Sat 10/29San José State vs Nevada-24.5W35–2844.5W35–28ON
Sat 11/5San José State vs Colorado State-24.0W28–1644.5W28–16UN
Sat 11/12San José State at San Diego State-2.5L27–4341.0L27–43ON
Sat 11/19San José State at Utah State+1.0L31–3551.0L31–35ON
Sat 11/26San José State vs Hawai'i-15.5W27–1458.5W27–14UN
Tue 12/20San José State vs Eastern Michigan-3.5L27–4154.0L27–41ON
Utah State 2022 Schedule
Utah State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/27Utah State vs UConn-24.0W31–2059.0W31–20UN
Sat 9/3Utah State at Alabama+42.0L0–5563.0L0–55UN
Sat 9/10Utah State vs Weber State-6.5L7–3559.5L7–35UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24Utah State vs UNLV+3.0L24–3461.5L24–34UN
Thu 9/29Utah State at BYU+26.0L26–3860.0L26–38OY
Sat 10/8Utah State vs Air Force+11.5W34–2754.0W34–27OY
Sat 10/15Utah State at Colorado State-14.0W17–1345.5W17–13UN
Sat 10/22Utah State at Wyoming+5.0L14–2844.5L14–28UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/5Utah State vs New Mexico-14.5W27–1042.5W27–10UY
Sat 11/12Utah State at Hawai'i-10.0W41–3455.0W41–34ON
Sat 11/19Utah State vs San José State-1.0W35–3151.0W35–31OY
Fri 11/25Utah State at Boise State+17.0L23–4251.5L23–42ON
Tue 12/27Utah State vs Memphis+8.0L10–3857.0L10–38UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
San José State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ San José State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ San José State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
San José State
+0.355
Utah State
+0.223
San José State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
San José State
+0.504
Utah State
+0.356
San José State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
San José State
0.187
Utah State
0.170
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
San José State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
San José State
+8.301
Utah State
+6.571
San José State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
San José State
+0.862
Utah State
+0.776
San José State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
San José State
68.6
Utah State
69.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
San José State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Utah State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
San José State
-19.7
Utah State
-8.3
Offense Rating
San José State
6.6
Utah State
10.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
San José State
26.3
Utah State
18.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? San José State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
San José State #95
1.13
Utah State #108
0.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #44
0.50
Utah State #150
1.33
San José State +0.57
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? San José State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
San José State #1
60.4
Utah State #1
38.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
San José State #35
23.2
Utah State #108
52.6
San José State +22.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on San José State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
San José State
Brent Brennan #1
20–37 (35%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kevin McGiven Yr 2 #1
DC Derrick Odum Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Utah State
Blake Anderson #1
11–3 (79%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Anthony Tucker Yr 2 #1
DC Ephraim Banda Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself