Sat, Nov 12 2022
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Aggie Memorial Stadium
Las Cruces, NM
·
Turf
·
30,343 cap
Lamar✈ 764 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
New Mexico State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
New Mexico State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
New Mexico State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
New Mexico State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
New Mexico State -22
O/U 48.5
consensus
Lamar 2022 Schedule
Lamar's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Lamar at SMU | +48.5L16–45 | 66.0 | L16–45 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | Lamar at New Mexico State | +22.0L14–51 | 48.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
New Mexico State 2022 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | New Mexico State vs Nevada | +7.0L12–23 | 48.0 | L12–23 | U | N |
| Thu 9/1 | New Mexico State at Minnesota | +36.0L0–38 | 52.5 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | New Mexico State at UTEP | +17.0L13–20 | 46.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | New Mexico State at Wisconsin | +38.0L7–66 | 45.5 | L7–66 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | New Mexico State vs Hawai'i | -4.5W45–26 | 53.0 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | New Mexico State vs Florida International | -15.0L7–21 | 54.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | New Mexico State vs New Mexico | +7.0W21–9 | 38.5 | W21–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | New Mexico State vs San José State | +21.0 | 43.0 | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/29 | New Mexico State at Massachusetts | -1.0W23–13 | 39.0 | W23–13 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/12 | New Mexico State vs Lamar | -22.0W51–14 | 48.5 | W51–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | New Mexico State at Missouri | +29.0L14–45 | 46.5 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | New Mexico State at Liberty | +24.0W49–14 | 51.0 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | New Mexico State vs Valparaiso | -31.5W65–3 | 55.0 | W65–3 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/26 | New Mexico State vs Bowling Green | +3.0W24–19 | 51.0 | W24–19 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +0.46
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico State Edge
New Mexico State +20.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓