Texas Tech at Kansas State Week 5 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Kansas State Matchup - Week 5
Sat, Oct 1 2022 · Week 5 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Texas Tech✈ 486 miSame TZ
28 37
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
21
Kansas State
37
P&R Line Kansas State -15.5
P&R Total O/U 57.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -7.5 · O/U 56.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Texas Tech, while Game Control favors Kansas State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Kansas State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -7.5
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2022 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Texas Tech vs Murray State-38.0W63–1064.0W63–10OY
Sat 9/10Texas Tech vs Houston-3.5W33–3062.5W33–30ON
Sat 9/17Texas Tech at NC State+10.5L14–2755.5L14–27UN
Sat 9/24Texas Tech vs Texas+7.0W37–3460.0W37–34OY
Sat 10/1Texas Tech at Kansas State+7.5L28–3756.0L28–37ON
Sat 10/8Texas Tech at Oklahoma State+11.0L31–4166.0L31–41OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Texas Tech vs West Virginia-5.0W48–1065.5W48–10UY
Sat 10/29Texas Tech vs Baylor-1.5L17–4561.0L17–45ON
Sat 11/5Texas Tech at TCU+8.5L24–3469.0L24–34UN
Sat 11/12Texas Tech vs Kansas-3.5W43–2863.5W43–28OY
Sat 11/19Texas Tech at Iowa State+3.5W14–1047.5W14–10UY
Sat 11/26Texas Tech vs Oklahoma+2.0W51–4865.5W51–48OY
Wed 12/28Texas Tech vs Ole Miss+4.5W42–2573.0W42–25UY
Kansas State 2022 Schedule
Kansas State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Kansas State vs South Dakota-27.0W34–050.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/10Kansas State vs Missouri-7.0W40–1252.5W40–12UY
Sat 9/17Kansas State vs Tulane-13.5L10–1749.0L10–17UN
Sat 9/24Kansas State at Oklahoma+13.5W41–3453.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech-7.5W37–2856.0W37–28OY
Sat 10/8Kansas State at Iowa State-1.0W10–945.0W10–9UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Kansas State at TCU+3.5L28–3854.5L28–38ON
Sat 10/29Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-2.5W48–057.5W48–0UY
Sat 11/5Kansas State vs Texas+3.0L27–3454.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/12Kansas State at Baylor+2.5W31–352.0W31–3UY
Sat 11/19Kansas State at West Virginia-8.0W48–3154.5W48–31OY
Sat 11/26Kansas State vs Kansas-11.5W47–2762.0W47–27OY
Sat 12/3Kansas State vs TCU+1.0W31–2860.5W31–28UY
Sat 12/31Kansas State vs Alabama+8.0L20–4558.5L20–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech
+0.353
Kansas State
+0.408
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
+0.388
Kansas State
+0.520
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
0.153
Kansas State
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
+7.508
Kansas State
+7.690
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech
+0.810
Kansas State
+0.830
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech
69.1
Kansas State
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #15
1.50
Kansas State #12
1.33
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #87
0.50
Kansas State #72
0.00
Texas Tech +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
41.6
Kansas State #1
70.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #81
45.8
Kansas State #19
13.9
Kansas State +29.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
4 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
86.5 — 6.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 9
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 1 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
20–16 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself