Texas Tech at Ole Miss Week 1 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Ole Miss Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Dec 29 2022 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 NRG Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 72,220 cap
Texas Tech✈ 466 miSame TZ Ole Miss✈ 472 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
42 25
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
30
MISS -4.5
Ole Miss
37
P&R Line Ole Miss -7.5
P&R Total O/U 67
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Ole Miss -4.5 · O/U 73.0
Matchup Prediction
Ole Miss has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Ole Miss entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Ole Miss wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Ole Miss wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Ole Miss -4.5
O/U 73.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ole Miss · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Ole Miss 2nd straight Home Game
Texas Tech 2022 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Texas Tech vs Murray State-38.0W63–1064.0W63–10OY
Sat 9/10Texas Tech vs Houston-3.5W33–3062.5W33–30ON
Sat 9/17Texas Tech at NC State+10.5L14–2755.5L14–27UN
Sat 9/24Texas Tech vs Texas+7.0W37–3460.0W37–34OY
Sat 10/1Texas Tech at Kansas State+7.5L28–3756.0L28–37ON
Sat 10/8Texas Tech at Oklahoma State+11.0L31–4166.0L31–41OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Texas Tech vs West Virginia-5.0W48–1065.5W48–10UY
Sat 10/29Texas Tech vs Baylor-1.5L17–4561.0L17–45ON
Sat 11/5Texas Tech at TCU+8.5L24–3469.0L24–34UN
Sat 11/12Texas Tech vs Kansas-3.5W43–2863.5W43–28OY
Sat 11/19Texas Tech at Iowa State+3.5W14–1047.5W14–10UY
Sat 11/26Texas Tech vs Oklahoma+2.0W51–4865.5W51–48OY
Wed 12/28Texas Tech vs Ole Miss+4.5W42–2573.0W42–25UY
Ole Miss 2022 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Ole Miss vs Troy-21.5W28–1056.5W28–10UN
Sat 9/10Ole Miss vs Central Arkansas-36.5W59–361.0W59–3OY
Sat 9/17Ole Miss at Georgia Tech-17.0W42–063.0W42–0UY
Sat 9/24Ole Miss vs Tulsa-21.0W35–2766.5W35–27UN
Sat 10/1Ole Miss vs Kentucky-6.5W22–1955.0W22–19UN
Sat 10/8Ole Miss at Vanderbilt-17.0W52–2859.5W52–28OY
Sat 10/15Ole Miss vs Auburn-15.5W48–3455.5W48–34ON
Sat 10/22Ole Miss at LSU+0.0L20–4564.0L20–45ON
Sat 10/29Ole Miss at Texas A&M-3.0W31–2855.5W31–28ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/12Ole Miss vs Alabama+11.0L24–3065.5L24–30UY
Sat 11/19Ole Miss at Arkansas+0.0L27–4267.5L27–42ON
Thu 11/24Ole Miss vs Mississippi State-2.5L22–2463.0L22–24UN
Wed 12/28Ole Miss vs Texas Tech-4.5L25–4273.0L25–42UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Ole Miss PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech
+0.373
Ole Miss
+0.430
Ole Miss Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
+0.397
Ole Miss
+0.529
Ole Miss Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
0.153
Ole Miss
0.155
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Ole Miss Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
+7.644
Ole Miss
+7.553
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech
+0.856
Ole Miss
+0.876
Ole Miss Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech
69.1
Ole Miss
72.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Ole Miss
16.4
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Ole Miss
22.1
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.2
Ole Miss
5.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Ole Miss Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #15
1.58
Ole Miss #14
1.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #87
1.08
Ole Miss #104
1.25
Ole Miss +0.25
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ole Miss Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
37.9
Ole Miss #1
65.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #81
46.1
Ole Miss #26
21.9
Ole Miss +27.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
1 — 3 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
10.7 — 73.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 17
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Ole Miss with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 1 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ole Miss
Lane Kiffin #1
15–8 (65%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Charlie Weis Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Maurice Crum Jr. Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself