Kansas State at West Virginia Week 12 College Football Matchup Kansas State at West Virginia Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 19 2022 · Week 12 · 🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium Morgantown, WV · Turf · 60,000 cap
Kansas State✈ 887 mi+1 hr TZ
48 31
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
37
West Virginia
21
P&R Line Kansas State -16.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -8 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -8
O/U 54.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 West Virginia 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Kansas State 2nd straight Road Game
Kansas State 2022 Schedule
Kansas State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Kansas State vs South Dakota-27.0W34–050.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/10Kansas State vs Missouri-7.0W40–1252.5W40–12UY
Sat 9/17Kansas State vs Tulane-13.5L10–1749.0L10–17UN
Sat 9/24Kansas State at Oklahoma+13.5W41–3453.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech-7.5W37–2856.0W37–28OY
Sat 10/8Kansas State at Iowa State-1.0W10–945.0W10–9UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Kansas State at TCU+3.5L28–3854.5L28–38ON
Sat 10/29Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-2.5W48–057.5W48–0UY
Sat 11/5Kansas State vs Texas+3.0L27–3454.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/12Kansas State at Baylor+2.5W31–352.0W31–3UY
Sat 11/19Kansas State at West Virginia-8.0W48–3154.5W48–31OY
Sat 11/26Kansas State vs Kansas-11.5W47–2762.0W47–27OY
Sat 12/3Kansas State vs TCU+1.0W31–2860.5W31–28UY
Sat 12/31Kansas State vs Alabama+8.0L20–4558.5L20–45ON
West Virginia 2022 Schedule
West Virginia's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1West Virginia at Pittsburgh+7.5L31–3850.0L31–38OY
Sat 9/10West Virginia vs Kansas-14.0L42–5559.5L42–55ON
Sat 9/17West Virginia vs Towson-41.0W65–758.5W65–7OY
Thu 9/22West Virginia at Virginia Tech-2.0W33–1049.5W33–10UY
Sat 10/1West Virginia at Texas+7.5L20–3861.0L20–38UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/13West Virginia vs Baylor+3.0W43–4055.0W43–40OY
Sat 10/22West Virginia at Texas Tech+5.0L10–4865.5L10–48UN
Sat 10/29West Virginia vs TCU+7.0L31–4170.0L31–41ON
Sat 11/5West Virginia at Iowa State+6.5L14–3149.5L14–31UN
Sat 11/12West Virginia vs Oklahoma+8.5W23–2068.5W23–20UY
Sat 11/19West Virginia vs Kansas State+8.0L31–4854.5L31–48ON
Sat 11/26West Virginia at Oklahoma State+5.5W24–1959.5W24–19UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State
+0.459
West Virginia
+0.355
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State
+0.587
West Virginia
+0.477
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State
0.146
West Virginia
0.148
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
West Virginia Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State
+7.979
West Virginia
+7.781
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State
+0.872
West Virginia
+0.826
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State
68.7
West Virginia
73.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
West Virginia
1.3
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
West Virginia
17.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
West Virginia
16.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #12
1.78
West Virginia #122
0.44
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #72
0.56
West Virginia #110
1.78
Kansas State +1.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
65.6
West Virginia #1
28.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #19
21.6
West Virginia #102
54.7
Kansas State +36.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
20–16 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
17–18 (49%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Graham Harrell Yr 1 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself