Kansas at Kansas State Week 13 College Football Matchup Kansas at Kansas State Matchup - Week 13
Sun, Nov 27 2022 · Week 13 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Away
27 47
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas
21
KSU -11.5
Kansas State
42
P&R Line Kansas State -21
P&R Total O/U 63
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Kansas State -11.5 · O/U 62.0
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Kansas State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -11.5
O/U 62.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Kansas State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas 2022 Schedule
Kansas's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Kansas vs Tennessee Tech-30.5W56–1062.0W56–10OY
Sat 9/10Kansas at West Virginia+14.0W55–4259.5W55–42OY
Sat 9/17Kansas at Houston+8.5W48–3058.0W48–30OY
Sat 9/24Kansas vs Duke-7.5W35–2766.0W35–27UY
Sat 10/1Kansas vs Iowa State+3.5W14–1159.0W14–11UY
Sat 10/8Kansas vs TCU+7.0L31–3870.0L31–38UY
Sat 10/15Kansas at Oklahoma+10.5L42–5266.0L42–52OY
Sat 10/22Kansas at Baylor+10.5L23–3556.5L23–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/5Kansas vs Oklahoma State-3.0W37–1659.5W37–16UY
Sat 11/12Kansas at Texas Tech+3.5L28–4363.5L28–43ON
Sat 11/19Kansas vs Texas+9.0L14–5563.5L14–55ON
Sat 11/26Kansas at Kansas State+11.5L27–4762.0L27–47ON
Wed 12/28Kansas vs Arkansas+1.5L53–5570.5L53–55ON
Kansas State 2022 Schedule
Kansas State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Kansas State vs South Dakota-27.0W34–050.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/10Kansas State vs Missouri-7.0W40–1252.5W40–12UY
Sat 9/17Kansas State vs Tulane-13.5L10–1749.0L10–17UN
Sat 9/24Kansas State at Oklahoma+13.5W41–3453.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech-7.5W37–2856.0W37–28OY
Sat 10/8Kansas State at Iowa State-1.0W10–945.0W10–9UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Kansas State at TCU+3.5L28–3854.5L28–38ON
Sat 10/29Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-2.5W48–057.5W48–0UY
Sat 11/5Kansas State vs Texas+3.0L27–3454.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/12Kansas State at Baylor+2.5W31–352.0W31–3UY
Sat 11/19Kansas State at West Virginia-8.0W48–3154.5W48–31OY
Sat 11/26Kansas State vs Kansas-11.5W47–2762.0W47–27OY
Sat 12/3Kansas State vs TCU+1.0W31–2860.5W31–28UY
Sat 12/31Kansas State vs Alabama+8.0L20–4558.5L20–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Kansas State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas
+0.487
Kansas State
+0.531
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas
+0.767
Kansas State
+0.636
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas
0.119
Kansas State
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Kansas State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas
+8.043
Kansas State
+8.189
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas
+0.841
Kansas State
+0.903
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas
70.1
Kansas State
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas
-0.3
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Kansas
15.2
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas
15.5
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas #85
1.09
Kansas State #12
1.80
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #97
1.09
Kansas State #72
0.50
Kansas State +0.71
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas #1
41.4
Kansas State #1
68.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #103
50.1
Kansas State #19
19.9
Kansas State +27.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kansas State
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Kansas State
95.3 — 3.1 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 20
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
2–10 (17%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 2 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
20–16 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself