Kansas at Texas Tech Week 11 College Football Matchup Kansas at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 11
Sun, Nov 13 2022 · Week 11 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
Kansas✈ 523 miSame TZ
Away
28 43
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas
30
Texas Tech
38
P&R Line Texas Tech -8
P&R Total O/U 67.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Texas Tech -3.5 · O/U 63.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Texas Tech, while Game Control favors Kansas. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Kansas wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -3.5
O/U 63.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas 2022 Schedule
Kansas's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2Kansas vs Tennessee Tech-30.5W56–1062.0W56–10OY
Sat 9/10Kansas at West Virginia+14.0W55–4259.5W55–42OY
Sat 9/17Kansas at Houston+8.5W48–3058.0W48–30OY
Sat 9/24Kansas vs Duke-7.5W35–2766.0W35–27UY
Sat 10/1Kansas vs Iowa State+3.5W14–1159.0W14–11UY
Sat 10/8Kansas vs TCU+7.0L31–3870.0L31–38UY
Sat 10/15Kansas at Oklahoma+10.5L42–5266.0L42–52OY
Sat 10/22Kansas at Baylor+10.5L23–3556.5L23–35ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/5Kansas vs Oklahoma State-3.0W37–1659.5W37–16UY
Sat 11/12Kansas at Texas Tech+3.5L28–4363.5L28–43ON
Sat 11/19Kansas vs Texas+9.0L14–5563.5L14–55ON
Sat 11/26Kansas at Kansas State+11.5L27–4762.0L27–47ON
Wed 12/28Kansas vs Arkansas+1.5L53–5570.5L53–55ON
Texas Tech 2022 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Texas Tech vs Murray State-38.0W63–1064.0W63–10OY
Sat 9/10Texas Tech vs Houston-3.5W33–3062.5W33–30ON
Sat 9/17Texas Tech at NC State+10.5L14–2755.5L14–27UN
Sat 9/24Texas Tech vs Texas+7.0W37–3460.0W37–34OY
Sat 10/1Texas Tech at Kansas State+7.5L28–3756.0L28–37ON
Sat 10/8Texas Tech at Oklahoma State+11.0L31–4166.0L31–41OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Texas Tech vs West Virginia-5.0W48–1065.5W48–10UY
Sat 10/29Texas Tech vs Baylor-1.5L17–4561.0L17–45ON
Sat 11/5Texas Tech at TCU+8.5L24–3469.0L24–34UN
Sat 11/12Texas Tech vs Kansas-3.5W43–2863.5W43–28OY
Sat 11/19Texas Tech at Iowa State+3.5W14–1047.5W14–10UY
Sat 11/26Texas Tech vs Oklahoma+2.0W51–4865.5W51–48OY
Wed 12/28Texas Tech vs Ole Miss+4.5W42–2573.0W42–25UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Kansas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas
+0.503
Texas Tech
+0.493
Kansas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas
+0.765
Texas Tech
+0.502
Kansas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas
0.119
Texas Tech
0.153
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas
+7.971
Texas Tech
+7.935
Kansas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas
+0.849
Texas Tech
+0.891
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas
70.1
Texas Tech
69.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas
-0.3
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Kansas
15.2
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas
15.5
Texas Tech
1.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas #85
1.33
Texas Tech #15
1.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #97
0.33
Texas Tech #87
1.22
Texas Tech +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas #1
49.3
Texas Tech #1
34.8
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas #103
41.6
Texas Tech #81
51.9
Kansas +14.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
81.9 — 9.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 15
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
2–10 (17%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 2 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 1 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself