Sun, Sep 4 2022
·
Week 1
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🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium
Lubbock, TX
·
Turf
·
60,862 cap
Murray State✈ 793 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -38
O/U 64.0
consensus
Murray State 2022 Schedule
Murray State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Murray State at Texas Tech | +38.0L10–63 | 64.0 | L10–63 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/17 | Murray State at Ball State | +21.0L0–31 | 53.0 | L0–31 | U | N |
Texas Tech 2022 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Texas Tech vs Murray State | -38.0W63–10 | 64.0 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Texas Tech vs Houston | -3.5W33–30 | 62.5 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Texas Tech at NC State | +10.5L14–27 | 55.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Texas Tech vs Texas | +7.0W37–34 | 60.0 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Texas Tech at Kansas State | +7.5L28–37 | 56.0 | L28–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma State | +11.0L31–41 | 66.0 | L31–41 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Texas Tech vs West Virginia | -5.0W48–10 | 65.5 | W48–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Texas Tech vs Baylor | -1.5L17–45 | 61.0 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Texas Tech at TCU | +8.5L24–34 | 69.0 | L24–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Texas Tech vs Kansas | -3.5W43–28 | 63.5 | W43–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Texas Tech at Iowa State | +3.5W14–10 | 47.5 | W14–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Texas Tech vs Oklahoma | +2.0W51–48 | 65.5 | W51–48 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/28 | Texas Tech vs Ole Miss | +4.5W42–25 | 73.0 | W42–25 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Murray State Edge
Murray State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Murray State Edge
Murray State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
98.5 — 0.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 53
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas Tech, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓