Sun, Oct 23 2022
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Amon G. Carter Stadium
Fort Worth, TX
·
Turf
·
45,000 cap
Kansas State✈ 450 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
TCU
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
TCU entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
TCU wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
TCU wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
TCU -3.5
O/U 54.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas State 2022 Schedule
Kansas State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Kansas State vs South Dakota | -27.0W34–0 | 50.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Kansas State vs Missouri | -7.0W40–12 | 52.5 | W40–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Kansas State vs Tulane | -13.5L10–17 | 49.0 | L10–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Kansas State at Oklahoma | +13.5W41–34 | 53.0 | W41–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Kansas State vs Texas Tech | -7.5W37–28 | 56.0 | W37–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Kansas State at Iowa State | -1.0W10–9 | 45.0 | W10–9 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Kansas State at TCU | +3.5L28–38 | 54.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Kansas State vs Oklahoma State | -2.5W48–0 | 57.5 | W48–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Kansas State vs Texas | +3.0L27–34 | 54.5 | L27–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Kansas State at Baylor | +2.5W31–3 | 52.0 | W31–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Kansas State at West Virginia | -8.0W48–31 | 54.5 | W48–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Kansas State vs Kansas | -11.5W47–27 | 62.0 | W47–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Kansas State vs TCU | +1.0W31–28 | 60.5 | W31–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/31 | Kansas State vs Alabama | +8.0L20–45 | 58.5 | L20–45 | O | N |
TCU 2022 Schedule
TCU's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | TCU at Colorado | -13.5W38–13 | 59.0 | W38–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | TCU vs Tarleton State | -40.0W59–17 | 66.5 | W59–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | TCU at SMU | -2.5W42–34 | 72.0 | W42–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | TCU vs Oklahoma | +5.0W55–24 | 69.5 | W55–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | TCU at Kansas | -7.0W38–31 | 70.0 | W38–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | TCU vs Oklahoma State | -5.0W43–40 | 69.5 | W43–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | TCU vs Kansas State | -3.5W38–28 | 54.5 | W38–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | TCU at West Virginia | -7.0W41–31 | 70.0 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | TCU vs Texas Tech | -8.5W34–24 | 69.0 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | TCU at Texas | +7.5W17–10 | 65.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | TCU at Baylor | -2.0W29–28 | 58.0 | W29–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | TCU vs Iowa State | -9.5W62–14 | 46.0 | W62–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | TCU vs Kansas State | -1.0L28–31 | 60.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 12/31 | TCU vs Michigan | +8.0W51–45 | 56.0 | W51–45 | O | Y |
| Mon 1/9 | TCU vs Georgia | +13.5L7–65 | 62.0 | L7–65 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
TCU Edge
TCU +0.40
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
TCU Edge
TCU +2.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
38.8 — 41.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
TCU won by 10
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on TCU, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
20–16 (56%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Collin Klein
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Klanderman
Yr 2
#1
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Garrett Riley
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joseph Gillespie
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

