Texas at Kansas State Week 10 College Football Matchup Texas at Kansas State Matchup - Week 10
Sat, Nov 5 2022 · Week 10 · 🏟 Bill Snyder Family Football Stadium Manhattan, KS · Turf · 50,000 cap
Texas✈ 619 miSame TZ
Away
34 27
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas
28
KSU +3
Kansas State
29
P&R Line Kansas State -1
P&R Total O/U 56
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas -3 · O/U 54.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Texas wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas -3
O/U 54.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Kansas State 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 Texas Coming off BYE
Texas 2022 Schedule
Texas's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Texas vs UL Monroe-37.0W52–1064.5W52–10UY
Sat 9/10Texas vs Alabama+21.0L19–2064.0L19–20UY
Sat 9/17Texas vs UTSA-13.0W41–2057.5W41–20OY
Sat 9/24Texas at Texas Tech-7.0L34–3760.0L34–37ON
Sat 10/1Texas vs West Virginia-7.5W38–2061.0W38–20UY
Sat 10/8Texas vs Oklahoma-7.5W49–065.0W49–0UY
Sat 10/15Texas vs Iowa State-15.5W24–2148.5W24–21UN
Sat 10/22Texas at Oklahoma State-6.5L34–4158.5L34–41ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/5Texas at Kansas State-3.0W34–2754.5W34–27OY
Sat 11/12Texas vs TCU-7.5L10–1765.0L10–17UN
Sat 11/19Texas at Kansas-9.0W55–1463.5W55–14OY
Fri 11/25Texas vs Baylor-10.0W38–2755.0W38–27OY
Thu 12/29Texas vs Washington-3.0L20–2767.0L20–27UN
Kansas State 2022 Schedule
Kansas State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Kansas State vs South Dakota-27.0W34–050.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/10Kansas State vs Missouri-7.0W40–1252.5W40–12UY
Sat 9/17Kansas State vs Tulane-13.5L10–1749.0L10–17UN
Sat 9/24Kansas State at Oklahoma+13.5W41–3453.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech-7.5W37–2856.0W37–28OY
Sat 10/8Kansas State at Iowa State-1.0W10–945.0W10–9UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Kansas State at TCU+3.5L28–3854.5L28–38ON
Sat 10/29Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-2.5W48–057.5W48–0UY
Sat 11/5Kansas State vs Texas+3.0L27–3454.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/12Kansas State at Baylor+2.5W31–352.0W31–3UY
Sat 11/19Kansas State at West Virginia-8.0W48–3154.5W48–31OY
Sat 11/26Kansas State vs Kansas-11.5W47–2762.0W47–27OY
Sat 12/3Kansas State vs TCU+1.0W31–2860.5W31–28UY
Sat 12/31Kansas State vs Alabama+8.0L20–4558.5L20–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas
+0.425
Kansas State
+0.381
Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas
+0.575
Kansas State
+0.497
Texas Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas
0.173
Kansas State
0.146
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas
+8.103
Kansas State
+7.243
Texas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas
+0.876
Kansas State
+0.815
Texas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas
69.6
Kansas State
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas
27.1
Kansas State
6.2
Offense Rating
Texas
29.5
Kansas State
18.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas
2.4
Kansas State
12.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas #6
2.13
Kansas State #12
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas #5
0.38
Kansas State #72
0.57
Texas +0.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas #1
73.6
Kansas State #1
71.2
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas #10
12.1
Kansas State #19
14.9
Texas +2.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
5–7 (42%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Kyle Flood Yr 2 #1
DC Pete Kwiatkowski Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
20–16 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself