Kansas State at Iowa State Week 6 College Football Matchup Kansas State at Iowa State Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 8 2022 · Week 6 · 🏟 Jack Trice Stadium Ames, IA · Turf · 61,500 cap
Kansas State✈ 248 miSame TZ
10 9
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
30
Iowa State
17
P&R Line Kansas State -13.5
P&R Total O/U 46.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Kansas State -1 · O/U 45.0
Matchup Prediction
Kansas State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Kansas State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Kansas State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Kansas State -1
O/U 45.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kansas State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Kansas State 2022 Schedule
Kansas State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Kansas State vs South Dakota-27.0W34–050.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/10Kansas State vs Missouri-7.0W40–1252.5W40–12UY
Sat 9/17Kansas State vs Tulane-13.5L10–1749.0L10–17UN
Sat 9/24Kansas State at Oklahoma+13.5W41–3453.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech-7.5W37–2856.0W37–28OY
Sat 10/8Kansas State at Iowa State-1.0W10–945.0W10–9UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Kansas State at TCU+3.5L28–3854.5L28–38ON
Sat 10/29Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-2.5W48–057.5W48–0UY
Sat 11/5Kansas State vs Texas+3.0L27–3454.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/12Kansas State at Baylor+2.5W31–352.0W31–3UY
Sat 11/19Kansas State at West Virginia-8.0W48–3154.5W48–31OY
Sat 11/26Kansas State vs Kansas-11.5W47–2762.0W47–27OY
Sat 12/3Kansas State vs TCU+1.0W31–2860.5W31–28UY
Sat 12/31Kansas State vs Alabama+8.0L20–4558.5L20–45ON
Iowa State 2022 Schedule
Iowa State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Iowa State vs Southeast Missouri State-33.5W42–1054.5W42–10UN
Sat 9/10Iowa State at Iowa+3.5W10–739.0W10–7UY
Sat 9/17Iowa State vs Ohio-20.0W43–1048.0W43–10OY
Sat 9/24Iowa State vs Baylor-2.5L24–3145.0L24–31ON
Sat 10/1Iowa State at Kansas-3.5L11–1459.0L11–14UN
Sat 10/8Iowa State vs Kansas State+1.0L9–1045.0L9–10UY
Sat 10/15Iowa State at Texas+15.5L21–2448.5L21–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/29Iowa State vs Oklahoma+1.5L13–2758.0L13–27UN
Sat 11/5Iowa State vs West Virginia-6.5W31–1449.5W31–14UY
Sat 11/12Iowa State at Oklahoma State-2.5L14–2047.5L14–20UN
Sat 11/19Iowa State vs Texas Tech-3.5L10–1447.5L10–14UN
Sat 11/26Iowa State at TCU+9.5L14–6246.0L14–62ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Kansas State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kansas State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State
+0.352
Iowa State
+0.262
Kansas State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State
+0.534
Iowa State
+0.488
Kansas State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State
0.146
Iowa State
0.171
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Iowa State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State
+7.436
Iowa State
+7.098
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State
+0.828
Iowa State
+0.785
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State
68.7
Iowa State
72.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Kansas State Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
Iowa State
4.1
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
Iowa State
16.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
Iowa State
12.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Kansas State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #12
2.00
Iowa State #82
1.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #72
0.25
Iowa State #34
0.40
Kansas State +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
74.0
Iowa State #1
51.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #19
12.5
Iowa State #88
34.2
Kansas State +22.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Iowa State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kansas State
15.1 — 64.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kansas State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
20–16 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Iowa State
Matt Campbell #1
42–32 (57%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Tom Manning Yr 2 #1
DC Jon Heacock Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself