Houston at Texas Tech Week 2 College Football Matchup Houston at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 10 2022 · Week 2 · 🏟 Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, TX · Turf · 60,862 cap
Houston✈ 467 miSame TZ
Away
30 33
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Houston
29
TTU -3.5
Texas Tech
35
P&R Line Texas Tech -6.5
P&R Total O/U 64
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -3.5 · O/U 62.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
78.1%
Texas Tech wins
Strong
Game Control
76%
Texas Tech wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -3.5
O/U 62.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Houston · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Texas Tech 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 Houston 2nd straight Road Game
Houston 2022 Schedule
Houston's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Houston at UTSA-3.5W37–3561.5W37–35ON
Sat 9/10Houston at Texas Tech+3.5L30–3362.5L30–33OY
Sat 9/17Houston vs Kansas-8.5L30–4858.0L30–48ON
Sat 9/24Houston vs Rice-17.5W34–2752.5W34–27ON
Fri 9/30Houston vs Tulane-5.0L24–2752.0L24–27UN
Fri 10/7Houston at Memphis+1.5W33–3257.5W33–32OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Houston at Navy-3.0W38–2051.0W38–20OY
Sat 10/29Houston vs South Florida-17.0W42–2759.0W42–27ON
Sat 11/5Houston at SMU+3.5L63–7766.0L63–77ON
Sat 11/12Houston vs Temple-20.0W43–3656.0W43–36ON
Sat 11/19Houston at East Carolina+6.0W42–366.5W42–3UY
Sat 11/26Houston vs Tulsa-13.0L30–3766.5L30–37ON
Fri 12/23Houston vs Louisiana-5.5W23–1656.5W23–16UY
Texas Tech 2022 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Texas Tech vs Murray State-38.0W63–1064.0W63–10OY
Sat 9/10Texas Tech vs Houston-3.5W33–3062.5W33–30ON
Sat 9/17Texas Tech at NC State+10.5L14–2755.5L14–27UN
Sat 9/24Texas Tech vs Texas+7.0W37–3460.0W37–34OY
Sat 10/1Texas Tech at Kansas State+7.5L28–3756.0L28–37ON
Sat 10/8Texas Tech at Oklahoma State+11.0L31–4166.0L31–41OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Texas Tech vs West Virginia-5.0W48–1065.5W48–10UY
Sat 10/29Texas Tech vs Baylor-1.5L17–4561.0L17–45ON
Sat 11/5Texas Tech at TCU+8.5L24–3469.0L24–34UN
Sat 11/12Texas Tech vs Kansas-3.5W43–2863.5W43–28OY
Sat 11/19Texas Tech at Iowa State+3.5W14–1047.5W14–10UY
Sat 11/26Texas Tech vs Oklahoma+2.0W51–4865.5W51–48OY
Wed 12/28Texas Tech vs Ole Miss+4.5W42–2573.0W42–25UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Houston PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Houston
+0.495
Texas Tech
+0.430
Houston Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Houston
+0.712
Texas Tech
+0.482
Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Houston
0.176
Texas Tech
0.153
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Houston
+8.268
Texas Tech
+7.780
Houston Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Houston
+0.875
Texas Tech
+0.847
Houston Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Houston
69.8
Texas Tech
69.1
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Texas Tech Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Houston
8.3
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Houston
19.8
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Houston
11.5
Texas Tech
1.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Houston #72
2.00
Texas Tech #15
5.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Houston #52
1.00
Texas Tech #87
0.00
Texas Tech +3.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 78.1% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Houston #1
24.1
Texas Tech #1
98.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Houston #63
43.6
Texas Tech #81
0.1
Texas Tech +74.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Houston
Dana Holgorsen #1
19–15 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 2 #1
DC Doug Belk Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Joey McGuire #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 1 #1
DC Tim DeRuyter Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself