Kansas State at TCU Week 14 College Football Matchup Kansas State at TCU Matchup - Week 14
Sat, Dec 3 2022 · Week 14 · Neutral Site · 🏟 AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX · Turf · 100,000 cap
Kansas State✈ 446 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
31 28
Final
TCU
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Kansas State
29
TCU
32
P&R Line TCU -3
P&R Total O/U 61.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas TCU -1 · O/U 60.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors TCU, while Game Control favors Kansas State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
TCU wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Kansas State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
TCU -1
O/U 60.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 TCU 2nd straight Home Game
Kansas State 2022 Schedule
Kansas State's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3Kansas State vs South Dakota-27.0W34–050.5W34–0UY
Sat 9/10Kansas State vs Missouri-7.0W40–1252.5W40–12UY
Sat 9/17Kansas State vs Tulane-13.5L10–1749.0L10–17UN
Sat 9/24Kansas State at Oklahoma+13.5W41–3453.0W41–34OY
Sat 10/1Kansas State vs Texas Tech-7.5W37–2856.0W37–28OY
Sat 10/8Kansas State at Iowa State-1.0W10–945.0W10–9UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22Kansas State at TCU+3.5L28–3854.5L28–38ON
Sat 10/29Kansas State vs Oklahoma State-2.5W48–057.5W48–0UY
Sat 11/5Kansas State vs Texas+3.0L27–3454.5L27–34ON
Sat 11/12Kansas State at Baylor+2.5W31–352.0W31–3UY
Sat 11/19Kansas State at West Virginia-8.0W48–3154.5W48–31OY
Sat 11/26Kansas State vs Kansas-11.5W47–2762.0W47–27OY
Sat 12/3Kansas State vs TCU+1.0W31–2860.5W31–28UY
Sat 12/31Kansas State vs Alabama+8.0L20–4558.5L20–45ON
TCU 2022 Schedule
TCU's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/2TCU at Colorado-13.5W38–1359.0W38–13UY
Sat 9/10TCU vs Tarleton State-40.0W59–1766.5W59–17OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/24TCU at SMU-2.5W42–3472.0W42–34OY
Sat 10/1TCU vs Oklahoma+5.0W55–2469.5W55–24OY
Sat 10/8TCU at Kansas-7.0W38–3170.0W38–31UN
Sat 10/15TCU vs Oklahoma State-5.0W43–4069.5W43–40ON
Sat 10/22TCU vs Kansas State-3.5W38–2854.5W38–28OY
Sat 10/29TCU at West Virginia-7.0W41–3170.0W41–31OY
Sat 11/5TCU vs Texas Tech-8.5W34–2469.0W34–24UY
Sat 11/12TCU at Texas+7.5W17–1065.0W17–10UY
Sat 11/19TCU at Baylor-2.0W29–2858.0W29–28UN
Sat 11/26TCU vs Iowa State-9.5W62–1446.0W62–14OY
Sat 12/3TCU vs Kansas State-1.0L28–3160.5L28–31UN
Sat 12/31TCU vs Michigan+8.0W51–4556.0W51–45OY
Mon 1/9TCU vs Georgia+13.5L7–6562.0L7–65ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
TCU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Kansas State
+0.421
TCU
+0.442
TCU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State
+0.488
TCU
+0.614
TCU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Kansas State
0.146
TCU
0.158
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
TCU Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Kansas State
+8.534
TCU
+7.862
Kansas State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Kansas State
+0.843
TCU
+0.828
Kansas State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Kansas State
68.7
TCU
69.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
TCU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Kansas State
6.2
TCU
6.6
Offense Rating
Kansas State
18.2
TCU
17.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Kansas State
12.0
TCU
11.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? TCU Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Kansas State #12
1.82
TCU #30
1.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #72
0.46
TCU #111
0.58
TCU +0.02
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kansas State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Kansas State #1
70.6
TCU #1
65.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Kansas State #19
18.5
TCU #34
19.8
Kansas State +5.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
TCU
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Kansas State
16.2 — 58.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kansas State won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Kansas State
Chris Klieman #1
20–16 (56%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Collin Klein Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Klanderman Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
TCU
Sonny Dykes #1
0–0 (0%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Garrett Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Joseph Gillespie Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself