North Texas at Miami (OH) Week 1 College Football Matchup North Texas at Miami (OH) Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Dec 23 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Toyota Stadium Frisco, TX · Turf · 20,500 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 803 mi-1 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
14 27
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Texas
24
M-OH -2
Miami (OH)
32
P&R Line Miami (OH) -8
P&R Total O/U 55
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -2 · O/U 56.5
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH) has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -2
O/U 56.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH) · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
North Texas 2021 Schedule
North Texas's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4North Texas vs Northwestern State-20.0W44–1466.0W44–14UY
Sat 9/11North Texas at SMU+22.5L12–3575.5L12–35UN
Sat 9/18North Texas vs UAB+12.5L6–4058.5L6–40UN
Sat 9/25North Texas at Louisiana Tech+9.5L17–2465.0L17–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9North Texas at Missouri+18.5L35–4869.0L35–48OY
Fri 10/15North Texas vs Marshall+11.0L21–4966.5L21–49ON
Sat 10/23North Texas vs Liberty+21.0L26–3561.0L26–35UY
Sat 10/30North Texas at Rice+1.5W30–2455.0W30–24UY
Sat 11/6North Texas at Southern Miss-5.5W38–1449.0W38–14OY
Sat 11/13North Texas vs UTEP-1.0W20–1755.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/20North Texas at Florida International-10.0W49–757.0W49–7UY
Sat 11/27North Texas vs UTSA+8.5W45–2360.0W45–23OY
Thu 12/23North Texas vs Miami (OH)+2.0L14–2756.5L14–27UN
Miami (OH) 2021 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+22.5L14–4949.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/11Miami (OH) at Minnesota+18.5L26–3155.0L26–31OY
Sat 9/18Miami (OH) vs Long Island University-39.5W42–755.5W42–7UN
Sat 9/25Miami (OH) at Army+7.5L10–2349.0L10–23UN
Sat 10/2Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan+2.5W28–1756.5W28–17UY
Sat 10/9Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-2.5L12–1358.0L12–13UN
Sat 10/16Miami (OH) vs Akron-20.0W34–2151.0W34–21ON
Sat 10/23Miami (OH) at Ball State+3.5W24–1753.0W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Miami (OH) at Ohio-7.0L33–3554.5L33–35ON
Tue 11/9Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.0W45–1858.0W45–18OY
Tue 11/16Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-17.0W34–752.0W34–7UY
Sat 11/27Miami (OH) at Kent State-1.0L47–4868.0L47–48ON
Thu 12/23Miami (OH) vs North Texas-2.0W27–1456.5W27–14UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Texas
+0.390
Miami (OH)
+0.430
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Texas
+0.430
Miami (OH)
+0.703
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Texas
0.190
Miami (OH)
0.231
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Texas
+6.972
Miami (OH)
+7.302
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Texas
+0.822
Miami (OH)
+0.801
North Texas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Texas
71.3
Miami (OH)
72.4
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Texas
-3.3
Miami (OH)
0.7
Offense Rating
North Texas
13.9
Miami (OH)
14.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Texas
17.2
Miami (OH)
14.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Texas #63
0.73
Miami (OH) #43
1.27
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #112
1.46
Miami (OH) #91
0.91
Miami (OH) +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Texas #1
37.0
Miami (OH) #1
46.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #96
52.2
Miami (OH) #66
42.9
Miami (OH) +9.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
63.4 — 14.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 13
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Miami (OH). Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Seth Littrell #1
32–33 (49%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Phil Bennett Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
33–48 (41%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Eric Koehler Yr 1 #1
DC Spence Nowinsky Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself