Thu, Dec 23 2021
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Toyota Stadium
Frisco, TX
·
Turf
·
20,500 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 803 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Miami (OH)
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Miami (OH) entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -2
O/U 56.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH)
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
North Texas 2021 Schedule
North Texas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | North Texas vs Northwestern State | -20.0W44–14 | 66.0 | W44–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | North Texas at SMU | +22.5L12–35 | 75.5 | L12–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | North Texas vs UAB | +12.5L6–40 | 58.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | North Texas at Louisiana Tech | +9.5L17–24 | 65.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | North Texas at Missouri | +18.5L35–48 | 69.0 | L35–48 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/15 | North Texas vs Marshall | +11.0L21–49 | 66.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | North Texas vs Liberty | +21.0L26–35 | 61.0 | L26–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | North Texas at Rice | +1.5W30–24 | 55.0 | W30–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | North Texas at Southern Miss | -5.5W38–14 | 49.0 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | North Texas vs UTEP | -1.0W20–17 | 55.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | North Texas at Florida International | -10.0W49–7 | 57.0 | W49–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | North Texas vs UTSA | +8.5W45–23 | 60.0 | W45–23 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/23 | North Texas vs Miami (OH) | +2.0L14–27 | 56.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
Miami (OH) 2021 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Miami (OH) at Cincinnati | +22.5L14–49 | 49.0 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Miami (OH) at Minnesota | +18.5L26–31 | 55.0 | L26–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Miami (OH) vs Long Island University | -39.5W42–7 | 55.5 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Miami (OH) at Army | +7.5L10–23 | 49.0 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan | +2.5W28–17 | 56.5 | W28–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan | -2.5L12–13 | 58.0 | L12–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Miami (OH) vs Akron | -20.0W34–21 | 51.0 | W34–21 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | +3.5W24–17 | 53.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Miami (OH) at Ohio | -7.0L33–35 | 54.5 | L33–35 | O | N |
| Tue 11/9 | Miami (OH) vs Buffalo | -7.0W45–18 | 58.0 | W45–18 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/16 | Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green | -17.0W34–7 | 52.0 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Miami (OH) at Kent State | -1.0L47–48 | 68.0 | L47–48 | O | N |
| Thu 12/23 | Miami (OH) vs North Texas | -2.0W27–14 | 56.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +9.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
1 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
63.4 — 14.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 13
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami (OH). Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Seth Littrell #1
32–33 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Mike Bloesch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Phil Bennett
Yr 1
#1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
33–48 (41%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Eric Koehler
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓

