North Texas at Missouri Week 6 College Football Matchup North Texas at Missouri Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 9 2021 · Week 6 · 🏟 Faurot Field Columbia, MO · Turf · 71,168 cap
North Texas✈ 478 miSame TZ
35 48
Final
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Texas
26
Missouri
38
P&R Line Missouri -12
P&R Total O/U 64.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Missouri -18.5 · O/U 69.0
Matchup Prediction
Missouri has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Missouri entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Missouri wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
Missouri wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Missouri -18.5
O/U 69.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → North Texas · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Missouri 2nd straight Home Game 🛋 North Texas Coming off BYE
North Texas 2021 Schedule
North Texas's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4North Texas vs Northwestern State-20.0W44–1466.0W44–14UY
Sat 9/11North Texas at SMU+22.5L12–3575.5L12–35UN
Sat 9/18North Texas vs UAB+12.5L6–4058.5L6–40UN
Sat 9/25North Texas at Louisiana Tech+9.5L17–2465.0L17–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9North Texas at Missouri+18.5L35–4869.0L35–48OY
Fri 10/15North Texas vs Marshall+11.0L21–4966.5L21–49ON
Sat 10/23North Texas vs Liberty+21.0L26–3561.0L26–35UY
Sat 10/30North Texas at Rice+1.5W30–2455.0W30–24UY
Sat 11/6North Texas at Southern Miss-5.5W38–1449.0W38–14OY
Sat 11/13North Texas vs UTEP-1.0W20–1755.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/20North Texas at Florida International-10.0W49–757.0W49–7UY
Sat 11/27North Texas vs UTSA+8.5W45–2360.0W45–23OY
Thu 12/23North Texas vs Miami (OH)+2.0L14–2756.5L14–27UN
Missouri 2021 Schedule
Missouri's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Missouri vs Central Michigan-13.5W34–2459.0W34–24UN
Sat 9/11Missouri at Kentucky+5.5L28–3556.5L28–35ON
Sat 9/18Missouri vs Southeast Missouri State-34.5W59–2859.0W59–28ON
Sat 9/25Missouri at Boston College+1.0L34–4158.5L34–41ON
Sat 10/2Missouri vs Tennessee-2.5L24–6266.5L24–62ON
Sat 10/9Missouri vs North Texas-18.5W48–3569.0W48–35ON
Sat 10/16Missouri vs Texas A&M+11.5L14–3559.0L14–35UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Missouri at Vanderbilt-16.0W37–2862.5W37–28ON
Sat 11/6Missouri at Georgia+40.0L6–4359.0L6–43UY
Sat 11/13Missouri vs South Carolina-1.0W31–2856.5W31–28OY
Sat 11/20Missouri vs Florida+9.5W24–2369.0W24–23UY
Fri 11/26Missouri at Arkansas+14.5L17–3463.0L17–34UN
Wed 12/22Missouri vs Army+7.0L22–2454.0L22–24UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
North Texas PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ North Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ North Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Texas
+0.463
Missouri
+0.383
North Texas Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Texas
+0.543
Missouri
+0.613
Missouri Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Texas
0.190
Missouri
0.175
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
North Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Texas
+7.785
Missouri
+7.358
North Texas Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Texas
+0.850
Missouri
+0.825
North Texas Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Texas
71.3
Missouri
72.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
North Texas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Missouri Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Texas
-1.3
Missouri
12.2
Offense Rating
North Texas
15.9
Missouri
20.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Texas
17.3
Missouri
8.7
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Missouri Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Texas #63
0.33
Missouri #97
1.40
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #112
2.00
Missouri #127
1.80
Missouri +1.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Missouri Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Texas #1
27.5
Missouri #1
43.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #96
69.0
Missouri #87
44.7
Missouri +16.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Missouri
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Missouri
97.2 — 1.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Missouri won by 13
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Missouri with a moderate edge in both. This is the strongest ATS signal in our backtest: teams in this situation have covered 55.8% of the time (n=113).

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Seth Littrell #1
32–33 (49%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Phil Bennett Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Eliah Drinkwitz Yr 1 #1
DC Steve Wilks Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself