Fri, Oct 15 2021
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Apogee Stadium
Denton, TX
·
Turf
·
30,850 cap
Marshall✈ 899 mi-1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Marshall
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Marshall entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Marshall wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Marshall wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Marshall -11
O/U 66.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Marshall
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Marshall 2021 Schedule
Marshall's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Marshall at Navy | -3.5W49–7 | 46.5 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Marshall vs North Carolina Central | -42.5W44–10 | 53.5 | W44–10 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Marshall vs East Carolina | -11.0L38–42 | 58.5 | L38–42 | O | N |
| Thu 9/23 | Marshall at App State | +7.0L30–31 | 59.0 | L30–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Marshall at Middle Tennessee | -11.0L28–34 | 66.0 | L28–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Marshall vs Old Dominion | -21.5W20–13 | 62.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Fri 10/15 | Marshall at North Texas | -11.0W49–21 | 66.5 | W49–21 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Marshall vs Florida International | -21.5W38–0 | 64.0 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Marshall at Florida Atlantic | -1.0W28–13 | 58.0 | W28–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Marshall vs UAB | -4.5L14–21 | 55.5 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Marshall at Charlotte | -14.0W49–28 | 62.0 | W49–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Marshall vs Western Kentucky | +1.0L21–53 | 75.5 | L21–53 | U | N |
| Sat 12/18 | Marshall vs Louisiana | +4.0L21–36 | 55.5 | L21–36 | O | N |
North Texas 2021 Schedule
North Texas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | North Texas vs Northwestern State | -20.0W44–14 | 66.0 | W44–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | North Texas at SMU | +22.5L12–35 | 75.5 | L12–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | North Texas vs UAB | +12.5L6–40 | 58.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | North Texas at Louisiana Tech | +9.5L17–24 | 65.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | North Texas at Missouri | +18.5L35–48 | 69.0 | L35–48 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/15 | North Texas vs Marshall | +11.0L21–49 | 66.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | North Texas vs Liberty | +21.0L26–35 | 61.0 | L26–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | North Texas at Rice | +1.5W30–24 | 55.0 | W30–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | North Texas at Southern Miss | -5.5W38–14 | 49.0 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | North Texas vs UTEP | -1.0W20–17 | 55.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | North Texas at Florida International | -10.0W49–7 | 57.0 | W49–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | North Texas vs UTSA | +8.5W45–23 | 60.0 | W45–23 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/23 | North Texas vs Miami (OH) | +2.0L14–27 | 56.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Marshall Edge
Marshall +0.95
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Marshall Edge
Marshall +40.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Marshall
1 — 4 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Marshall
1.9 — 95.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Marshall won by 28
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Marshall with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tim Cramsey
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lance Guidry
Yr 1
#1
North Texas
Seth Littrell #1
32–33 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Mike Bloesch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Phil Bennett
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓