Miami (OH) at Ball State Week 8 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Ball State Matchup - Week 8
Sat, Oct 23 2021 · Week 8 · 🏟 Scheumann Stadium Muncie, IN · Turf · 22,500 cap
24 17
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
31
M-OH +3.5
Ball State
21
P&R Line Miami (OH) -10
P&R Total O/U 51.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Ball State -3.5 · O/U 53.0
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Miami (OH), while Game Control favors Ball State. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Ball State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ball State -3.5
O/U 53.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Miami (OH) · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2021 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+22.5L14–4949.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/11Miami (OH) at Minnesota+18.5L26–3155.0L26–31OY
Sat 9/18Miami (OH) vs Long Island University-39.5W42–755.5W42–7UN
Sat 9/25Miami (OH) at Army+7.5L10–2349.0L10–23UN
Sat 10/2Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan+2.5W28–1756.5W28–17UY
Sat 10/9Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-2.5L12–1358.0L12–13UN
Sat 10/16Miami (OH) vs Akron-20.0W34–2151.0W34–21ON
Sat 10/23Miami (OH) at Ball State+3.5W24–1753.0W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Miami (OH) at Ohio-7.0L33–3554.5L33–35ON
Tue 11/9Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.0W45–1858.0W45–18OY
Tue 11/16Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-17.0W34–752.0W34–7UY
Sat 11/27Miami (OH) at Kent State-1.0L47–4868.0L47–48ON
Thu 12/23Miami (OH) vs North Texas-2.0W27–1456.5W27–14UY
Ball State 2021 Schedule
Ball State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Ball State vs Western Illinois-31.0W31–2158.5W31–21UN
Sat 9/11Ball State at Penn State+23.0L13–4458.0L13–44UN
Sat 9/18Ball State at Wyoming+6.5L12–4553.5L12–45ON
Sat 9/25Ball State vs Toledo+4.5L12–2256.5L12–22UN
Sat 10/2Ball State vs Army+10.5W28–1646.5W28–16UY
Sat 10/9Ball State at Western Michigan+13.0W45–2057.5W45–20OY
Sat 10/16Ball State at Eastern Michigan-1.5W38–3154.5W38–31OY
Sat 10/23Ball State vs Miami (OH)-3.5L17–2453.0L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Ball State at Akron-20.0W31–2558.0W31–25UN
Wed 11/10Ball State at Northern Illinois-3.0L29–3059.5L29–30UN
Wed 11/17Ball State vs Central Michigan+2.5L17–3757.0L17–37UN
Tue 11/23Ball State vs Buffalo-6.0W20–359.5W20–3UY
Sat 12/25Ball State vs Georgia State+6.0L20–5152.5L20–51ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.512
Ball State
+0.341
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.772
Ball State
+0.414
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
0.231
Ball State
0.132
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
+7.752
Ball State
+7.422
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.912
Ball State
+0.824
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH)
72.4
Ball State
69.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Ball State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Ball State
-21.7
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Ball State
5.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Ball State
27.6
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Miami (OH) Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #43
1.00
Ball State #85
0.83
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #91
0.83
Ball State #45
0.83
Miami (OH) +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Ball State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
42.3
Ball State #1
43.7
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #66
49.3
Ball State #70
49.0
Ball State +1.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
33–48 (41%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Eric Koehler Yr 1 #1
DC Spence Nowinsky Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
23–36 (39%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Kevin Lynch Yr 1 #1
DC Tyler Stockton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself