Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan Week 6 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan Matchup - Week 6
Sat, Oct 9 2021 · Week 6 · 🏟 Rynearson Stadium Ypsilanti, MI · Turf · 30,200 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 197 miSame TZ
12 13
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
32
Eastern Michigan
25
P&R Line Miami (OH) -7
P&R Total O/U 56.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -2.5 · O/U 58.0
Matchup Prediction
Eastern Michigan has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Eastern Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Eastern Michigan wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Eastern Michigan wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -2.5
O/U 58.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami (OH) · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2021 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+22.5L14–4949.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/11Miami (OH) at Minnesota+18.5L26–3155.0L26–31OY
Sat 9/18Miami (OH) vs Long Island University-39.5W42–755.5W42–7UN
Sat 9/25Miami (OH) at Army+7.5L10–2349.0L10–23UN
Sat 10/2Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan+2.5W28–1756.5W28–17UY
Sat 10/9Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-2.5L12–1358.0L12–13UN
Sat 10/16Miami (OH) vs Akron-20.0W34–2151.0W34–21ON
Sat 10/23Miami (OH) at Ball State+3.5W24–1753.0W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Miami (OH) at Ohio-7.0L33–3554.5L33–35ON
Tue 11/9Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.0W45–1858.0W45–18OY
Tue 11/16Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-17.0W34–752.0W34–7UY
Sat 11/27Miami (OH) at Kent State-1.0L47–4868.0L47–48ON
Thu 12/23Miami (OH) vs North Texas-2.0W27–1456.5W27–14UY
Eastern Michigan 2021 Schedule
Eastern Michigan's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Eastern Michigan vs St. Francis (PA)-34.0W35–1554.5W35–15UN
Sat 9/11Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin+26.0L7–3452.0L7–34UN
Sat 9/18Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts-22.0W42–2856.5W42–28ON
Sat 9/25Eastern Michigan vs Texas State-7.5W59–2162.0W59–21OY
Sat 10/2Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois+0.0L20–2762.5L20–27UN
Sat 10/9Eastern Michigan vs Miami (OH)+2.5W13–1258.0W13–12UY
Sat 10/16Eastern Michigan vs Ball State+1.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
Sat 10/23Eastern Michigan at Bowling Green-4.5W55–2449.5W55–24OY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Eastern Michigan at Toledo+9.0W52–4954.5W52–49OY
Tue 11/9Eastern Michigan vs Ohio-6.0L26–3461.5L26–34UN
Tue 11/16Eastern Michigan vs Western Michigan+6.0W22–2166.0W22–21UY
Fri 11/26Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan+8.5L10–3164.0L10–31UN
Sat 12/18Eastern Michigan vs Liberty+9.5L20–5658.5L20–56ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.563
Eastern Michigan
+0.420
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.722
Eastern Michigan
+0.556
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
0.231
Eastern Michigan
0.143
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
+7.925
Eastern Michigan
+7.978
Eastern Michigan Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.926
Eastern Michigan
+0.868
Miami (OH) Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH)
72.4
Eastern Michigan
69.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Eastern Michigan Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Eastern Michigan
-8.6
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Eastern Michigan
10.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Eastern Michigan
18.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #43
0.75
Eastern Michigan #68
1.75
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #91
1.25
Eastern Michigan #104
1.00
Eastern Michigan +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Eastern Michigan Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
30.8
Eastern Michigan #1
59.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #66
62.2
Eastern Michigan #99
37.9
Eastern Michigan +28.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Eastern Michigan with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
33–48 (41%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Eric Koehler Yr 1 #1
DC Spence Nowinsky Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Eastern Michigan
Chris Creighton #1
32–52 (38%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Chris Creighton Yr 1 #1
DC Neal Neathery Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself