Wed, Nov 10 2021
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Yager Stadium
Oxford, OH
·
Turf
·
24,286 cap
Buffalo✈ 391 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Buffalo,
while Game Control favors Miami (OH).
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Buffalo wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Miami (OH) wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -7
O/U 58.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Miami (OH)
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Buffalo 2021 Schedule
Buffalo's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Buffalo vs Wagner | -44.0W69–7 | 54.5 | W69–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Buffalo at Nebraska | +13.5L3–28 | 54.0 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Buffalo vs Coastal Carolina | +14.0L25–28 | 58.0 | L25–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Buffalo at Old Dominion | -13.0W35–34 | 50.5 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +7.0L17–24 | 59.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Buffalo at Kent State | +7.0L38–48 | 66.0 | L38–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Buffalo vs Ohio | -7.5W27–26 | 54.5 | W27–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Buffalo at Akron | -13.5W45–10 | 58.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Buffalo vs Bowling Green | -13.5L44–56 | 51.5 | L44–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/9 | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | +7.0L18–45 | 58.0 | L18–45 | O | N |
| Wed 11/17 | Buffalo vs Northern Illinois | +2.0L27–33 | 59.5 | L27–33 | O | N |
| Tue 11/23 | Buffalo at Ball State | +6.0L3–20 | 59.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
Miami (OH) 2021 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Miami (OH) at Cincinnati | +22.5L14–49 | 49.0 | L14–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Miami (OH) at Minnesota | +18.5L26–31 | 55.0 | L26–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Miami (OH) vs Long Island University | -39.5W42–7 | 55.5 | W42–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Miami (OH) at Army | +7.5L10–23 | 49.0 | L10–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan | +2.5W28–17 | 56.5 | W28–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan | -2.5L12–13 | 58.0 | L12–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Miami (OH) vs Akron | -20.0W34–21 | 51.0 | W34–21 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Miami (OH) at Ball State | +3.5W24–17 | 53.0 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/2 | Miami (OH) at Ohio | -7.0L33–35 | 54.5 | L33–35 | O | N |
| Tue 11/9 | Miami (OH) vs Buffalo | -7.0W45–18 | 58.0 | W45–18 | O | Y |
| Tue 11/16 | Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green | -17.0W34–7 | 52.0 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Miami (OH) at Kent State | -1.0L47–48 | 68.0 | L47–48 | O | N |
| Thu 12/23 | Miami (OH) vs North Texas | -2.0W27–14 | 56.5 | W27–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +0.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Miami (OH)
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Miami (OH)
91.3 — 4.4 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Miami (OH) won by 27
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Buffalo
Maurice Linguist #1
1–2 (33%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Shane Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joe Cauthen
Yr 1
#1
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
33–48 (41%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Eric Koehler
Yr 1
#1
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓