North Texas at SMU Week 2 College Football Matchup North Texas at SMU Matchup - Week 2
Sat, Sep 11 2021 · Week 2 · 🏟 Gerald J. Ford Stadium University Park, TX · Turf · 32,000 cap
12 35
Final
SMU
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
North Texas
25
SMU
43
P&R Line SMU -18
P&R Total O/U 68
Confidence 86 High
Vegas SMU -22.5 · O/U 75.5
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
SMU wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
SMU -22.5
O/U 75.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → SMU · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 SMU 2nd straight Home Game
North Texas 2021 Schedule
North Texas's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4North Texas vs Northwestern State-20.0W44–1466.0W44–14UY
Sat 9/11North Texas at SMU+22.5L12–3575.5L12–35UN
Sat 9/18North Texas vs UAB+12.5L6–4058.5L6–40UN
Sat 9/25North Texas at Louisiana Tech+9.5L17–2465.0L17–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9North Texas at Missouri+18.5L35–4869.0L35–48OY
Fri 10/15North Texas vs Marshall+11.0L21–4966.5L21–49ON
Sat 10/23North Texas vs Liberty+21.0L26–3561.0L26–35UY
Sat 10/30North Texas at Rice+1.5W30–2455.0W30–24UY
Sat 11/6North Texas at Southern Miss-5.5W38–1449.0W38–14OY
Sat 11/13North Texas vs UTEP-1.0W20–1755.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/20North Texas at Florida International-10.0W49–757.0W49–7UY
Sat 11/27North Texas vs UTSA+8.5W45–2360.0W45–23OY
Thu 12/23North Texas vs Miami (OH)+2.0L14–2756.5L14–27UN
SMU 2021 Schedule
SMU's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4SMU vs Abilene Christian-32.0W56–966.0W56–9UY
Sat 9/11SMU vs North Texas-22.5W35–1275.5W35–12UY
Sat 9/18SMU at Louisiana Tech-11.0W39–3765.0W39–37ON
Sat 9/25SMU at TCU+8.0W42–3466.0W42–34OY
Sat 10/2SMU vs South Florida-21.5W41–1768.5W41–17UY
Sat 10/9SMU at Navy-13.5W31–2457.0W31–24UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/21SMU vs Tulane-14.0W55–2670.5W55–26OY
Sat 10/30SMU at Houston-1.0L37–4461.5L37–44ON
Sat 11/6SMU at Memphis-3.5L25–2872.0L25–28UN
Sat 11/13SMU vs UCF-7.0W55–2861.5W55–28OY
Sat 11/20SMU at Cincinnati+9.5L14–4865.5L14–48UN
Sat 11/27SMU vs Tulsa-6.0L31–3463.0L31–34ON
Wed 12/29SMU vs Virginia+2.571.0
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
SMU PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ SMU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
North Texas
+0.437
SMU
+0.513
SMU Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
North Texas
+0.621
SMU
+0.852
SMU Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
North Texas
0.190
SMU
0.164
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
North Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
North Texas
+7.441
SMU
+7.884
SMU Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
North Texas
+0.797
SMU
+0.858
SMU Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
North Texas
71.3
SMU
67.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
SMU Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
SMU Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
North Texas
-1.3
SMU
16.2
Offense Rating
North Texas
15.9
SMU
26.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
North Texas
17.3
SMU
9.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? North Texas Edge
Avg sequences created per game
North Texas #63
0.00
SMU #6
2.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #112
0.00
SMU #110
0.00
North Texas +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? SMU Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
North Texas #1
94.1
SMU #1
98.9
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
North Texas #96
2.2
SMU #27
0.2
SMU +4.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
SMU
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
SMU
80.0 — 12.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
SMU won by 23
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on SMU, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Seth Littrell #1
32–33 (49%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Phil Bennett Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
SMU
Sonny Dykes #1
25–14 (64%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Garrett Riley Yr 1 #1
DC Jim Leavitt Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself