Sat, Sep 25 2021
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Joe Aillet Stadium
Ruston, LA
·
Turf
·
28,019 cap
North Texas✈ 265 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana Tech
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisiana Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Louisiana Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
58.6%
Louisiana Tech wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Louisiana Tech -9.5
O/U 65.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → North Texas
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Texas 2021 Schedule
North Texas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | North Texas vs Northwestern State | -20.0W44–14 | 66.0 | W44–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | North Texas at SMU | +22.5L12–35 | 75.5 | L12–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | North Texas vs UAB | +12.5L6–40 | 58.5 | L6–40 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | North Texas at Louisiana Tech | +9.5L17–24 | 65.0 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/9 | North Texas at Missouri | +18.5L35–48 | 69.0 | L35–48 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/15 | North Texas vs Marshall | +11.0L21–49 | 66.5 | L21–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | North Texas vs Liberty | +21.0L26–35 | 61.0 | L26–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | North Texas at Rice | +1.5W30–24 | 55.0 | W30–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | North Texas at Southern Miss | -5.5W38–14 | 49.0 | W38–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | North Texas vs UTEP | -1.0W20–17 | 55.5 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | North Texas at Florida International | -10.0W49–7 | 57.0 | W49–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | North Texas vs UTSA | +8.5W45–23 | 60.0 | W45–23 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/23 | North Texas vs Miami (OH) | +2.0L14–27 | 56.5 | L14–27 | U | N |
Louisiana Tech 2021 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State | +20.5L34–35 | 52.5 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana | -11.5W45–42 | 70.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Louisiana Tech vs SMU | +11.0L37–39 | 65.0 | L37–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Louisiana Tech vs North Texas | -9.5W24–17 | 65.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Louisiana Tech at NC State | +18.5L27–34 | 56.0 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Louisiana Tech at UTEP | -6.5L3–19 | 55.5 | L3–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Louisiana Tech vs UTSA | +5.5L16–45 | 59.5 | L16–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion | -4.0L20–23 | 52.0 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Louisiana Tech at UAB | +14.0L38–52 | 49.5 | L38–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Louisiana Tech vs Charlotte | -7.0W42–32 | 58.0 | W42–32 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss | -15.0L19–35 | 47.5 | L19–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Louisiana Tech at Rice | -3.5L31–35 | 52.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ North Texas
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ North Texas
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ North Texas
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Tech Edge
Louisiana Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Tech Edge
Louisiana Tech +9.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Louisiana Tech
2 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Louisiana Tech
95.9 — 2.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Louisiana Tech won by 7
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisiana Tech. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
North Texas
Seth Littrell #1
32–33 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Mike Bloesch
Yr 1
#1
DC
Phil Bennett
Yr 1
#1
Louisiana Tech
Skip Holtz #1
62–43 (59%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Blackwell
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓