Miami (OH) at Kent State Week 13 College Football Matchup Miami (OH) at Kent State Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 27 2021 · Week 13 · 🏟 Dix Stadium Kent, OH · Turf · 25,000 cap
Miami (OH)✈ 212 miSame TZ
47 48
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Miami (OH)
36
M-OH -1
Kent State
30
P&R Line Miami (OH) -5.5
P&R Total O/U 66
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Miami (OH) -1.0 · O/U 68.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Kent State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Miami (OH) -1.0
O/U 68.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Miami (OH) · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2021 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+22.5L14–4949.0L14–49ON
Sat 9/11Miami (OH) at Minnesota+18.5L26–3155.0L26–31OY
Sat 9/18Miami (OH) vs Long Island University-39.5W42–755.5W42–7UN
Sat 9/25Miami (OH) at Army+7.5L10–2349.0L10–23UN
Sat 10/2Miami (OH) vs Central Michigan+2.5W28–1756.5W28–17UY
Sat 10/9Miami (OH) at Eastern Michigan-2.5L12–1358.0L12–13UN
Sat 10/16Miami (OH) vs Akron-20.0W34–2151.0W34–21ON
Sat 10/23Miami (OH) at Ball State+3.5W24–1753.0W24–17UY
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/2Miami (OH) at Ohio-7.0L33–3554.5L33–35ON
Tue 11/9Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-7.0W45–1858.0W45–18OY
Tue 11/16Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-17.0W34–752.0W34–7UY
Sat 11/27Miami (OH) at Kent State-1.0L47–4868.0L47–48ON
Thu 12/23Miami (OH) vs North Texas-2.0W27–1456.5W27–14UY
Kent State 2021 Schedule
Kent State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Kent State at Texas A&M+29.5L10–4167.0L10–41UN
Sat 9/11Kent State vs VMI-19.0W60–1073.0W60–10UY
Sat 9/18Kent State at Iowa+22.0L7–3055.5L7–30UN
Sat 9/25Kent State at Maryland+13.0L16–3771.5L16–37UN
Sat 10/2Kent State vs Bowling Green-16.5W27–2056.0W27–20UN
Sat 10/9Kent State vs Buffalo-7.0W48–3866.0W48–38OY
Sat 10/16Kent State at Western Michigan+7.0L31–6468.5L31–64ON
Sat 10/23Kent State at Ohio-5.0W34–2768.5W34–27UY
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/3Kent State vs Northern Illinois-3.5W52–4772.0W52–47OY
Wed 11/10Kent State at Central Michigan+2.5L30–5476.5L30–54ON
Sat 11/20Kent State at Akron-13.5W38–072.5W38–0UY
Sat 11/27Kent State vs Miami (OH)+1.0W48–4768.0W48–47OY
Sat 12/4Kent State vs Northern Illinois-3.5L23–4175.5L23–41UN
Tue 12/21Kent State vs Wyoming+3.0L38–5261.0L38–52ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Miami (OH) PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Miami (OH)
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.568
Kent State
+0.511
Miami (OH) Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.737
Kent State
+0.537
Miami (OH) Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
0.231
Kent State
0.153
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Miami (OH) Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Miami (OH)
+8.257
Kent State
+7.341
Miami (OH) Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Miami (OH)
+0.904
Kent State
+0.921
Kent State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Miami (OH)
72.4
Kent State
70.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kent State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Miami (OH) Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Miami (OH)
0.7
Kent State
-16.7
Offense Rating
Miami (OH)
14.7
Kent State
7.5
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Miami (OH)
14.0
Kent State
24.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum?
Avg sequences created per game
Miami (OH) #43
1.10
Kent State #61
1.10
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #91
0.70
Kent State #106
1.50
Miami (OH) +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Kent State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Miami (OH) #1
47.9
Kent State #1
49.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Miami (OH) #66
42.6
Kent State #80
43.5
Kent State +1.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
3 — 3 sequences
GC Battle
Kent State
45.6 — 32.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Kent State won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Kent State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #1
33–48 (41%) · Yr 8 at school
OC Eric Koehler Yr 1 #1
DC Spence Nowinsky Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kent State
Sean Lewis #1
13–19 (41%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Andrew Sowder Yr 1 #1
DC Tom Kaufman Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself