UTSA at North Texas Week 13 College Football Matchup UTSA at North Texas Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 27 2021 · Week 13 · 🏟 Apogee Stadium Denton, TX · Turf · 30,850 cap
UTSA✈ 273 miSame TZ
Away
23 45
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
UTSA
36
North Texas
25
P&R Line UTSA -10.5
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 86 High
Vegas UT San Antonio -8.5 · O/U 60.0
Matchup Prediction
UTSA has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor UTSA entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
UTSA wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
UTSA wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UT San Antonio -8.5
O/U 60.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → UTSA · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
UTSA 2021 Schedule
UTSA's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4UTSA at Illinois+4.5W37–3052.0W37–30OY
Sat 9/11UTSA vs Lamar-38.0W54–065.0W54–0UY
Sat 9/18UTSA vs Middle Tennessee-11.5W27–1360.0W27–13UY
Sat 9/25UTSA at Memphis+3.0W31–2866.5W31–28UY
Sat 10/2UTSA vs UNLV-21.5W24–1755.5W24–17UN
Sat 10/9UTSA at Western Kentucky+3.5W52–4671.0W52–46OY
Sat 10/16UTSA vs Rice-17.0W45–053.0W45–0UY
Sat 10/23UTSA at Louisiana Tech-5.5W45–1659.5W45–16OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/6UTSA at UTEP-12.0W44–2353.5W44–23OY
Sat 11/13UTSA vs Southern Miss-32.5W27–1754.0W27–17UN
Sat 11/20UTSA vs UAB-3.5W34–3154.0W34–31ON
Sat 11/27UTSA at North Texas-8.5L23–4560.0L23–45ON
Fri 12/3UTSA vs Western Kentucky+3.0W49–4174.5W49–41OY
Tue 12/21UTSA vs San Diego State+3.0L24–3848.0L24–38ON
North Texas 2021 Schedule
North Texas's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4North Texas vs Northwestern State-20.0W44–1466.0W44–14UY
Sat 9/11North Texas at SMU+22.5L12–3575.5L12–35UN
Sat 9/18North Texas vs UAB+12.5L6–4058.5L6–40UN
Sat 9/25North Texas at Louisiana Tech+9.5L17–2465.0L17–24UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/9North Texas at Missouri+18.5L35–4869.0L35–48OY
Fri 10/15North Texas vs Marshall+11.0L21–4966.5L21–49ON
Sat 10/23North Texas vs Liberty+21.0L26–3561.0L26–35UY
Sat 10/30North Texas at Rice+1.5W30–2455.0W30–24UY
Sat 11/6North Texas at Southern Miss-5.5W38–1449.0W38–14OY
Sat 11/13North Texas vs UTEP-1.0W20–1755.5W20–17UY
Sat 11/20North Texas at Florida International-10.0W49–757.0W49–7UY
Sat 11/27North Texas vs UTSA+8.5W45–2360.0W45–23OY
Thu 12/23North Texas vs Miami (OH)+2.0L14–2756.5L14–27UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
UTSA PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UTSA
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
UTSA
+0.432
North Texas
+0.385
UTSA Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
UTSA
+0.728
North Texas
+0.512
UTSA Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
UTSA
0.183
North Texas
0.190
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
North Texas Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
UTSA
+7.849
North Texas
+7.129
UTSA Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
UTSA
+0.836
North Texas
+0.832
UTSA Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
UTSA
69.5
North Texas
71.3
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UTSA Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UTSA Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
UTSA
0.7
North Texas
-1.3
Offense Rating
UTSA
16.4
North Texas
15.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
UTSA
15.7
North Texas
17.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? UTSA Edge
Avg sequences created per game
UTSA #32
1.73
North Texas #63
0.60
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
UTSA #24
0.46
North Texas #112
1.40
UTSA +1.13
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? UTSA Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
UTSA #1
69.7
North Texas #1
33.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
UTSA #21
16.8
North Texas #96
56.0
UTSA +36.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
2 — 2 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
North Texas
74.8 — 10.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
North Texas won by 22
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UTSA with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
UTSA
Jeff Traylor #1
10–5 (67%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Barry Lunney Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Jess Loepp / Rod Wright Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
North Texas
Seth Littrell #1
32–33 (49%) · Yr 6 at school
OC Mike Bloesch Yr 1 #1
DC Phil Bennett Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself