Sat, Oct 16 2021
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Bloomington, IN
·
Turf
·
52,959 cap
Michigan State✈ 267 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Michigan State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Michigan State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Michigan State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -3.5
O/U 48.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2021 Schedule
Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Michigan State at Northwestern | +3.0W38–21 | 45.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Michigan State vs Youngstown State | -28.5W42–14 | 52.0 | W42–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Michigan State at Miami | +7.0W38–17 | 57.5 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Michigan State vs Nebraska | -3.5W23–20 | 55.0 | W23–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Michigan State vs Western Kentucky | -10.5W48–31 | 66.5 | W48–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Michigan State at Rutgers | -4.5W31–13 | 50.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Michigan State at Indiana | -3.5W20–15 | 48.5 | W20–15 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Michigan State vs Michigan | +4.0W37–33 | 50.5 | W37–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Michigan State at Purdue | -2.5L29–40 | 53.0 | L29–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Michigan State vs Maryland | -11.5W40–21 | 60.0 | W40–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Michigan State at Ohio State | +19.5L7–56 | 70.5 | L7–56 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Michigan State vs Penn State | +3.5W30–27 | 51.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | Michigan State vs Pittsburgh | -3.5W31–21 | 55.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
Indiana 2021 Schedule
Indiana's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Indiana at Iowa | +3.5L6–34 | 45.5 | L6–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Indiana vs Idaho | -31.5W56–14 | 52.5 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Indiana vs Cincinnati | +4.0L24–38 | 50.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Indiana at Western Kentucky | -9.5W33–31 | 62.5 | W33–31 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Indiana at Penn State | +12.0L0–24 | 54.5 | L0–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Indiana vs Michigan State | +3.5L15–20 | 48.5 | L15–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Indiana vs Ohio State | +21.0L7–54 | 59.0 | L7–54 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Indiana at Maryland | +3.5L35–38 | 48.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Indiana at Michigan | +20.5L7–29 | 51.0 | L7–29 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Indiana vs Rutgers | -6.5L3–38 | 42.5 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Indiana vs Minnesota | +7.5L14–35 | 43.0 | L14–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Indiana at Purdue | +18.0L7–44 | 50.5 | L7–44 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +0.10
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +27.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Indiana
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan State
19.9 — 53.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 5
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Michigan State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Mel Tucker #1
5–5 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 1
#1
Indiana
Tom Allen #1
25–24 (51%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Nick Sheridan
Yr 1
#1
DC
Charlton Warren
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓