Sat, Nov 27 2021
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Spartan Stadium
East Lansing, MI
·
Turf
·
75,005 cap
Penn State✈ 366 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Penn State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Penn State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Penn State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Penn State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Penn State -3.5
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Penn State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Penn State 2021 Schedule
Penn State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Penn State at Wisconsin | +5.5W16–10 | 48.5 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Penn State vs Ball State | -23.0W44–13 | 58.0 | W44–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Penn State vs Auburn | -4.0W28–20 | 53.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Penn State vs Villanova | -29.5W38–17 | 53.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Penn State vs Indiana | -12.0W24–0 | 54.5 | W24–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Penn State at Iowa | +2.5L20–23 | 41.0 | L20–23 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Penn State vs Illinois | -24.5L18–20 | 46.0 | L18–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Penn State at Ohio State | +18.5L24–33 | 60.5 | L24–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Penn State at Maryland | -10.0W31–14 | 56.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Penn State vs Michigan | +2.5L17–21 | 48.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Penn State vs Rutgers | -14.0W28–0 | 44.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Penn State at Michigan State | -3.5L27–30 | 51.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 1/1 | Penn State vs Arkansas | +3.5L10–24 | 51.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
Michigan State 2021 Schedule
Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Michigan State at Northwestern | +3.0W38–21 | 45.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Michigan State vs Youngstown State | -28.5W42–14 | 52.0 | W42–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Michigan State at Miami | +7.0W38–17 | 57.5 | W38–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Michigan State vs Nebraska | -3.5W23–20 | 55.0 | W23–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Michigan State vs Western Kentucky | -10.5W48–31 | 66.5 | W48–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Michigan State at Rutgers | -4.5W31–13 | 50.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Michigan State at Indiana | -3.5W20–15 | 48.5 | W20–15 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Michigan State vs Michigan | +4.0W37–33 | 50.5 | W37–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Michigan State at Purdue | -2.5L29–40 | 53.0 | L29–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Michigan State vs Maryland | -11.5W40–21 | 60.0 | W40–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Michigan State at Ohio State | +19.5L7–56 | 70.5 | L7–56 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Michigan State vs Penn State | +3.5W30–27 | 51.5 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | Michigan State vs Pittsburgh | -3.5W31–21 | 55.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +10.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan State
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan State
47.0 — 21.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan State won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Penn State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Penn State
James Franklin #1
63–28 (69%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Anthony Poindexter / Brent Pry
Yr 1
#1
Michigan State
Mel Tucker #1
5–5 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Jay Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scottie Hazelton
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓