Nebraska at Michigan State Week 4 College Football Matchup Nebraska at Michigan State Matchup - Week 4
Sat, Sep 25 2021 · Week 4 · 🏟 Spartan Stadium East Lansing, MI · Turf · 75,005 cap
Nebraska✈ 642 mi+1 hr TZ
Away
20 23
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Nebraska
26
Michigan State
29
P&R Line Michigan State -3.5
P&R Total O/U 54.5
Confidence 75 Good
Vegas Michigan State -3.5 · O/U 55.0
Matchup Prediction
Michigan State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Michigan State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Michigan State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Michigan State -3.5
O/U 55.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Nebraska 2nd straight Road Game
Nebraska 2021 Schedule
Nebraska's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/28Nebraska at Illinois-6.5L22–3052.0L22–30UN
Sat 9/4Nebraska vs Fordham-42.0W52–755.0W52–7OY
Sat 9/11Nebraska vs Buffalo-13.5W28–354.0W28–3UY
Sat 9/18Nebraska at Oklahoma+22.5L16–2362.5L16–23UY
Sat 9/25Nebraska at Michigan State+3.5L20–2355.0L20–23UY
Sat 10/2Nebraska vs Northwestern-11.0W56–751.5W56–7OY
Sat 10/9Nebraska vs Michigan+2.5L29–3250.5L29–32ON
Sat 10/16Nebraska at Minnesota-4.5L23–3048.5L23–30ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Nebraska vs Purdue-7.5L23–2854.0L23–28UN
Sat 11/6Nebraska vs Ohio State+14.0L17–2668.5L17–26UY
Sat 11/13Nebraska vs SE Louisiana-28
Sat 11/20Nebraska at Wisconsin+10.0L28–3543.5L28–35OY
Fri 11/26Nebraska vs Iowa-1.5L21–2841.0L21–28ON
Michigan State 2021 Schedule
Michigan State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Michigan State at Northwestern+3.0W38–2145.5W38–21OY
Sat 9/11Michigan State vs Youngstown State-28.5W42–1452.0W42–14ON
Sat 9/18Michigan State at Miami+7.0W38–1757.5W38–17UY
Sat 9/25Michigan State vs Nebraska-3.5W23–2055.0W23–20UN
Sat 10/2Michigan State vs Western Kentucky-10.5W48–3166.5W48–31OY
Sat 10/9Michigan State at Rutgers-4.5W31–1350.0W31–13UY
Sat 10/16Michigan State at Indiana-3.5W20–1548.5W20–15UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Michigan State vs Michigan+4.0W37–3350.5W37–33OY
Sat 11/6Michigan State at Purdue-2.5L29–4053.0L29–40ON
Sat 11/13Michigan State vs Maryland-11.5W40–2160.0W40–21OY
Sat 11/20Michigan State at Ohio State+19.5L7–5670.5L7–56UN
Sat 11/27Michigan State vs Penn State+3.5W30–2751.5W30–27OY
Thu 12/30Michigan State vs Pittsburgh-3.5W31–2155.0W31–21UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Michigan State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Nebraska
+0.461
Michigan State
+0.462
Michigan State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Nebraska
+0.650
Michigan State
+0.686
Michigan State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Nebraska
0.160
Michigan State
0.166
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Michigan State Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Nebraska
+7.401
Michigan State
+6.748
Nebraska Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Nebraska
+0.886
Michigan State
+0.874
Nebraska Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Nebraska
72.0
Michigan State
70.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Michigan State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Nebraska Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Nebraska
4.8
Michigan State
-1.7
Offense Rating
Nebraska
18.4
Michigan State
15.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Nebraska
13.6
Michigan State
17.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Michigan State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Nebraska #109
0.33
Michigan State #78
1.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Nebraska #32
0.33
Michigan State #100
0.00
Michigan State +0.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Michigan State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Nebraska #1
54.3
Michigan State #1
79.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Nebraska #76
38.6
Michigan State #44
11.7
Michigan State +24.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Michigan State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Nebraska
Scott Frost #1
14–22 (39%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Matt Lubick Yr 1 #1
DC Erik Chinander Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Michigan State
Mel Tucker #1
5–5 (50%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jay Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Scottie Hazelton Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself