Mississippi State at Texas Tech Week 1 College Football Matchup Mississippi State at Texas Tech Matchup - Week 1
Tue, Dec 28 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium Memphis, TN · Turf · 62,380 cap
Mississippi State✈ 133 miSame TZ Texas Tech✈ 686 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
7 34
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Mississippi State
28
TTU +10
Texas Tech
29
P&R Line Mississippi State -0.5
P&R Total O/U 58
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Mississippi State -10 · O/U 58.5
Matchup Prediction
Mississippi State has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Mississippi State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Mississippi State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Mississippi State -10
O/U 58.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Mississippi State · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2021 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech-20.5W35–3452.5W35–34ON
Sat 9/11Mississippi State vs NC State+1.5W24–1055.0W24–10UY
Sat 9/18Mississippi State at Memphis-3.0L29–3163.0L29–31UN
Sat 9/25Mississippi State vs LSU+1.5L25–2854.5L25–28UN
Sat 10/2Mississippi State at Texas A&M+7.0W26–2245.5W26–22OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Mississippi State vs Alabama+17.5L9–4959.5L9–49UN
Sat 10/23Mississippi State at Vanderbilt-21.0W45–653.0W45–6UY
Sat 10/30Mississippi State vs Kentucky-1.0W31–1747.0W31–17OY
Sat 11/6Mississippi State at Arkansas+4.0L28–3154.0L28–31OY
Sat 11/13Mississippi State at Auburn+6.0W43–3451.0W43–34OY
Sat 11/20Mississippi State vs Tennessee State-44.0W55–1056.5W55–10OY
Thu 11/25Mississippi State vs Ole Miss-2.5L21–3165.0L21–31UN
Tue 12/28Mississippi State vs Texas Tech-10.0L7–3458.5L7–34UN
Texas Tech 2021 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Texas Tech vs Houston+2.5W38–2163.0W38–21UY
Sat 9/11Texas Tech vs Stephen F. Austin-31.5W28–2251.5W28–22UN
Sat 9/18Texas Tech vs Florida International-20.5W54–2154.0W54–21OY
Sat 9/25Texas Tech at Texas+9.0L35–7063.0L35–70ON
Sat 10/2Texas Tech at West Virginia+7.5W23–2055.0W23–20UY
Sat 10/9Texas Tech vs TCU+2.5L31–5260.0L31–52ON
Sat 10/16Texas Tech at Kansas-18.5W41–1467.5W41–14UY
Sat 10/23Texas Tech vs Kansas State+1.0L24–2560.5L24–25UY
Sat 10/30Texas Tech at Oklahoma+18.5L21–5267.0L21–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/13Texas Tech vs Iowa State+13.0W41–3855.5W41–38OY
Sat 11/20Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State+10.0L0–2355.0L0–23UN
Sat 11/27Texas Tech at Baylor+14.0L24–2751.5L24–27UY
Tue 12/28Texas Tech vs Mississippi State+10.0W34–758.5W34–7UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Mississippi State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Mississippi State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Mississippi State
+0.520
Texas Tech
+0.471
Mississippi State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Mississippi State
+0.690
Texas Tech
+0.671
Mississippi State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Mississippi State
0.155
Texas Tech
0.166
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Mississippi State
+8.657
Texas Tech
+8.469
Mississippi State Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Mississippi State
+0.943
Texas Tech
+0.864
Mississippi State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Mississippi State
70.3
Texas Tech
72.5
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Mississippi State Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Mississippi State
-2.1
Texas Tech
27.6
Offense Rating
Mississippi State
14.2
Texas Tech
29.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Mississippi State
16.3
Texas Tech
1.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Mississippi State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Mississippi State #23
2.00
Texas Tech #73
1.17
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Mississippi State #62
0.67
Texas Tech #74
1.17
Mississippi State +0.83
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Mississippi State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Mississippi State #1
45.8
Texas Tech #1
43.1
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Mississippi State #73
41.5
Texas Tech #84
49.1
Mississippi State +2.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
62.0 — 18.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 27
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Mississippi State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Mike Leach #1
6–8 (43%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mike Leach Yr 1 #1
DC Zach Arnett Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Texas Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–14 (44%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Sonny Cumbie Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Patterson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself