Sat, Sep 25 2021
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, TX
·
Turf
·
100,119 cap
Texas Tech✈ 333 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
49.4%
Texas Tech wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Texas -9
O/U 63.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Texas Tech
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2021 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas Tech vs Houston | +2.5W38–21 | 63.0 | W38–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas Tech vs Stephen F. Austin | -31.5W28–22 | 51.5 | W28–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas Tech vs Florida International | -20.5W54–21 | 54.0 | W54–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas Tech at Texas | +9.0L35–70 | 63.0 | L35–70 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Texas Tech at West Virginia | +7.5W23–20 | 55.0 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Texas Tech vs TCU | +2.5L31–52 | 60.0 | L31–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas Tech at Kansas | -18.5W41–14 | 67.5 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Texas Tech vs Kansas State | +1.0L24–25 | 60.5 | L24–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma | +18.5L21–52 | 67.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Texas Tech vs Iowa State | +13.0W41–38 | 55.5 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State | +10.0L0–23 | 55.0 | L0–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Texas Tech at Baylor | +14.0L24–27 | 51.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/28 | Texas Tech vs Mississippi State | +10.0W34–7 | 58.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
Texas 2021 Schedule
Texas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas vs Louisiana | -8.5W38–18 | 58.0 | W38–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas at Arkansas | -6.0L21–40 | 57.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas vs Rice | -26.0W58–0 | 52.0 | W58–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas vs Texas Tech | -9.0W70–35 | 63.0 | W70–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Texas at TCU | -3.5W32–27 | 65.5 | W32–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Texas vs Oklahoma | +4.0L48–55 | 65.5 | L48–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas vs Oklahoma State | -3.0L24–32 | 61.0 | L24–32 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Texas at Baylor | +2.0L24–31 | 61.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Texas at Iowa State | +6.0L7–30 | 59.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas vs Kansas | -31.0L56–57 | 61.5 | L56–57 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas at West Virginia | +2.5L23–31 | 56.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Texas vs Kansas State | -3.0W22–17 | 54.5 | W22–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Tech Edge
Texas Tech +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Tech Edge
Texas Tech +1.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas
96.4 — 2.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas won by 35
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas Tech, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–14 (44%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Sonny Cumbie
Yr 1
#1
DC
Keith Patterson
Yr 1
#1
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Kwiatkowski
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓