Sat, Sep 4 2021
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Davis Wade Stadium
Starkville, MS
·
Turf
·
61,337 cap
Louisiana Tech✈ 232 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Mississippi State -20.5
O/U 52.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Mississippi State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana Tech 2021 Schedule
Louisiana Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State | +20.5L34–35 | 52.5 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Louisiana Tech vs SE Louisiana | -11.5W45–42 | 70.5 | W45–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Louisiana Tech vs SMU | +11.0L37–39 | 65.0 | L37–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Louisiana Tech vs North Texas | -9.5W24–17 | 65.0 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Louisiana Tech at NC State | +18.5L27–34 | 56.0 | L27–34 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Louisiana Tech at UTEP | -6.5L3–19 | 55.5 | L3–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Louisiana Tech vs UTSA | +5.5L16–45 | 59.5 | L16–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Louisiana Tech at Old Dominion | -4.0L20–23 | 52.0 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Louisiana Tech at UAB | +14.0L38–52 | 49.5 | L38–52 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Louisiana Tech vs Charlotte | -7.0W42–32 | 58.0 | W42–32 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/19 | Louisiana Tech vs Southern Miss | -15.0L19–35 | 47.5 | L19–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Louisiana Tech at Rice | -3.5L31–35 | 52.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
Mississippi State 2021 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech | -20.5W35–34 | 52.5 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Mississippi State vs NC State | +1.5W24–10 | 55.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Mississippi State at Memphis | -3.0L29–31 | 63.0 | L29–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Mississippi State vs LSU | +1.5L25–28 | 54.5 | L25–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Mississippi State at Texas A&M | +7.0W26–22 | 45.5 | W26–22 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Mississippi State vs Alabama | +17.5L9–49 | 59.5 | L9–49 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Mississippi State at Vanderbilt | -21.0W45–6 | 53.0 | W45–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Mississippi State vs Kentucky | -1.0W31–17 | 47.0 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Mississippi State at Arkansas | +4.0L28–31 | 54.0 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Mississippi State at Auburn | +6.0W43–34 | 51.0 | W43–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Mississippi State vs Tennessee State | -44.0W55–10 | 56.5 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/25 | Mississippi State vs Ole Miss | -2.5L21–31 | 65.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Mississippi State vs Texas Tech | -10.0L7–34 | 58.5 | L7–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Mississippi State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Mississippi State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Mississippi State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Tech Edge
Louisiana Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Tech Edge
Louisiana Tech +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Mississippi State
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Mississippi State
45.4 — 33.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Mississippi State won by 1
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Mississippi State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisiana Tech
Skip Holtz #1
62–43 (59%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 1
#1
DC
David Blackwell
Yr 1
#1
Mississippi State
Mike Leach #1
6–8 (43%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mike Leach
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zach Arnett
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓