Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Morgantown, WV
·
Turf
·
60,000 cap
Texas Tech✈ 1,281 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Texas Tech,
while Game Control favors West Virginia.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas Tech wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
West Virginia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -7.5
O/U 55.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2021 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas Tech vs Houston | +2.5W38–21 | 63.0 | W38–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas Tech vs Stephen F. Austin | -31.5W28–22 | 51.5 | W28–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas Tech vs Florida International | -20.5W54–21 | 54.0 | W54–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas Tech at Texas | +9.0L35–70 | 63.0 | L35–70 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Texas Tech at West Virginia | +7.5W23–20 | 55.0 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Texas Tech vs TCU | +2.5L31–52 | 60.0 | L31–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas Tech at Kansas | -18.5W41–14 | 67.5 | W41–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Texas Tech vs Kansas State | +1.0L24–25 | 60.5 | L24–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Texas Tech at Oklahoma | +18.5L21–52 | 67.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Texas Tech vs Iowa State | +13.0W41–38 | 55.5 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State | +10.0L0–23 | 55.0 | L0–23 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Texas Tech at Baylor | +14.0L24–27 | 51.5 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/28 | Texas Tech vs Mississippi State | +10.0W34–7 | 58.5 | W34–7 | U | Y |
West Virginia 2021 Schedule
West Virginia's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | West Virginia at Maryland | -2.5L24–30 | 56.0 | L24–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | West Virginia vs Long Island University | -50.0W66–0 | 56.0 | W66–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | West Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -2.0W27–21 | 49.5 | W27–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | West Virginia at Oklahoma | +17.5L13–16 | 56.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | West Virginia vs Texas Tech | -7.5L20–23 | 55.0 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | West Virginia at Baylor | +1.0L20–45 | 45.0 | L20–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | West Virginia at TCU | +5.0W29–17 | 58.0 | W29–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | West Virginia vs Iowa State | +7.5W38–31 | 49.0 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | West Virginia vs Oklahoma State | +3.5L3–24 | 48.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | West Virginia at Kansas State | +6.0L17–34 | 47.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | West Virginia vs Texas | -2.5W31–23 | 56.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | West Virginia at Kansas | -15.5W34–28 | 55.5 | W34–28 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | West Virginia vs Minnesota | +5.0L6–18 | 44.5 | L6–18 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Tech Edge
Texas Tech +0.75
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
West Virginia Edge
West Virginia +9.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
West Virginia
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
16.4 — 64.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–14 (44%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Sonny Cumbie
Yr 1
#1
DC
Keith Patterson
Yr 1
#1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
13–12 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Gerad Parker
Yr 1
#1
DC
ShaDon Brown
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓