Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Kyle Field
College Station, TX
·
Turf
·
102,733 cap
Mississippi State✈ 483 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Mississippi State,
while Game Control favors Texas A&M.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Texas A&M wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas A&M -7
O/U 45.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Texas A&M
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2021 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech | -20.5W35–34 | 52.5 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Mississippi State vs NC State | +1.5W24–10 | 55.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Mississippi State at Memphis | -3.0L29–31 | 63.0 | L29–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Mississippi State vs LSU | +1.5L25–28 | 54.5 | L25–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Mississippi State at Texas A&M | +7.0W26–22 | 45.5 | W26–22 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Mississippi State vs Alabama | +17.5L9–49 | 59.5 | L9–49 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Mississippi State at Vanderbilt | -21.0W45–6 | 53.0 | W45–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Mississippi State vs Kentucky | -1.0W31–17 | 47.0 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Mississippi State at Arkansas | +4.0L28–31 | 54.0 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Mississippi State at Auburn | +6.0W43–34 | 51.0 | W43–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Mississippi State vs Tennessee State | -44.0W55–10 | 56.5 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/25 | Mississippi State vs Ole Miss | -2.5L21–31 | 65.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Mississippi State vs Texas Tech | -10.0L7–34 | 58.5 | L7–34 | U | N |
Texas A&M 2021 Schedule
Texas A&M's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas A&M vs Kent State | -29.5W41–10 | 67.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas A&M vs Colorado | -17.5W10–7 | 51.0 | W10–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas A&M vs New Mexico | -30.5W34–0 | 49.5 | W34–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas A&M vs Arkansas | -4.5L10–20 | 47.0 | L10–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Texas A&M vs Mississippi State | -7.0L22–26 | 45.5 | L22–26 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Texas A&M vs Alabama | +18.5W41–38 | 50.5 | W41–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas A&M at Missouri | -11.5W35–14 | 59.0 | W35–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Texas A&M vs South Carolina | -19.0W44–14 | 46.0 | W44–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Texas A&M vs Auburn | -4.5W20–3 | 49.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas A&M at Ole Miss | -1.0L19–29 | 57.5 | L19–29 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas A&M vs Prairie View A&M | -41.5W52–3 | 50.0 | W52–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Texas A&M at LSU | -6.0L24–27 | 47.0 | L24–27 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas A&M
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas A&M Edge
Texas A&M +15.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas A&M
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Mississippi State
26.6 — 47.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Mississippi State won by 4
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Mike Leach #1
6–8 (43%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mike Leach
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zach Arnett
Yr 1
#1
Texas A&M
Jimbo Fisher #1
29–10 (74%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Darrell Dickey
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Elko
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓