Texas Tech at Kansas Week 7 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Kansas Matchup - Week 7
Sat, Oct 16 2021 · Week 7 · 🏟 Memorial Stadium Lawrence, KS · Turf · 50,071 cap
Texas Tech✈ 523 miSame TZ
41 14
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
45
TTU -18.5
Kansas
18
P&R Line Texas Tech -27
P&R Total O/U 63.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Texas Tech -18.5 · O/U 67.5
Matchup Prediction
Texas Tech has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Texas Tech entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Texas Tech wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Texas Tech -18.5
O/U 67.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Texas Tech · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🛋 Kansas Coming off BYE
Texas Tech 2021 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Texas Tech vs Houston+2.5W38–2163.0W38–21UY
Sat 9/11Texas Tech vs Stephen F. Austin-31.5W28–2251.5W28–22UN
Sat 9/18Texas Tech vs Florida International-20.5W54–2154.0W54–21OY
Sat 9/25Texas Tech at Texas+9.0L35–7063.0L35–70ON
Sat 10/2Texas Tech at West Virginia+7.5W23–2055.0W23–20UY
Sat 10/9Texas Tech vs TCU+2.5L31–5260.0L31–52ON
Sat 10/16Texas Tech at Kansas-18.5W41–1467.5W41–14UY
Sat 10/23Texas Tech vs Kansas State+1.0L24–2560.5L24–25UY
Sat 10/30Texas Tech at Oklahoma+18.5L21–5267.0L21–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/13Texas Tech vs Iowa State+13.0W41–3855.5W41–38OY
Sat 11/20Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State+10.0L0–2355.0L0–23UN
Sat 11/27Texas Tech at Baylor+14.0L24–2751.5L24–27UY
Tue 12/28Texas Tech vs Mississippi State+10.0W34–758.5W34–7UY
Kansas 2021 Schedule
Kansas's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/3Kansas vs South Dakota-11.5W17–1455.5W17–14UN
Fri 9/10Kansas at Coastal Carolina+26.5L22–4952.0L22–49ON
Sat 9/18Kansas vs Baylor+17.0L7–4548.5L7–45ON
Sat 9/25Kansas at Duke+16.5L33–5257.5L33–52ON
Sat 10/2Kansas at Iowa State+34.5L7–5957.5L7–59ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Kansas vs Texas Tech+18.5L14–4167.5L14–41UN
Sat 10/23Kansas vs Oklahoma+38.0L23–3566.5L23–35UY
Sat 10/30Kansas at Oklahoma State+28.5L3–5554.5L3–55ON
Sat 11/6Kansas vs Kansas State+24.0L10–3556.0L10–35UN
Sat 11/13Kansas at Texas+31.0W57–5661.5W57–56OY
Sat 11/20Kansas at TCU+21.0L28–3164.0L28–31UY
Sat 11/27Kansas vs West Virginia+15.5L28–3455.5L28–34OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Texas Tech PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Texas Tech
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Texas Tech
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech
+0.724
Kansas
+0.435
Texas Tech Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
+0.973
Kansas
+0.701
Texas Tech Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
0.166
Kansas
0.114
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Texas Tech Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
+9.532
Kansas
+8.389
Texas Tech Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech
+1.018
Kansas
+0.822
Texas Tech Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech
72.5
Kansas
69.9
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Kansas Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Kansas
-0.3
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Kansas
15.2
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.2
Kansas
15.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #73
1.33
Kansas #91
0.25
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #74
1.00
Kansas #138
3.25
Texas Tech +1.08
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
45.0
Kansas #1
16.5
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #84
45.3
Kansas #128
75.8
Texas Tech +28.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Texas Tech
1 — 4 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Texas Tech
1.4 — 97.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Texas Tech won by 27
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Texas Tech with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–14 (44%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Sonny Cumbie Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Patterson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Kansas
Lance Leipold #1
1–2 (33%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Andy Kotelnicki Yr 1 #1
DC Brian Borland Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself