Mississippi State at Vanderbilt Week 8 College Football Matchup

Mississippi State at Vanderbilt Week 8 College Football Matchup Mississippi State at Vanderbilt Matchup - Week 8

Sat, Oct 23 2021 · Week 8 · 🏟 Vanderbilt Stadium Nashville, TN · Turf · 40,350 cap

Mississippi State✈ 217 miSame TZ

Mississippi State

Away

45 – 6

Final

Vanderbilt

Home

Mississippi State

←

Vanderbilt

P&R Line Mississippi State -27.5

P&R Total O/U 54

Confidence 90 High

Vegas Mississippi State -21 · O/U 53.0

Matchup Prediction

Mississippi State has the edge in this matchup

Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Mississippi State entering this game.

Momentum Control

61.3%

Mississippi State wins

Lean

Game Control

64.9%

Mississippi State wins

Lean

Vegas Spread

Mississippi State -21

O/U 53.0

teamrankings

Advanced Stats

All 4 factors agree → Mississippi State · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align

↓ See full breakdown

Mississippi State 2021 Schedule

Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech	-20.5W35–34	52.5	W35–34	O	N
Sat 9/11	Mississippi State vs NC State	+1.5W24–10	55.0	W24–10	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Mississippi State at Memphis	-3.0L29–31	63.0	L29–31	U	N
Sat 9/25	Mississippi State vs LSU	+1.5L25–28	54.5	L25–28	U	N
Sat 10/2	Mississippi State at Texas A&M	+7.0W26–22	45.5	W26–22	O	Y
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16	Mississippi State vs Alabama	+17.5L9–49	59.5	L9–49	U	N
Sat 10/23	Mississippi State at Vanderbilt	-21.0W45–6	53.0	W45–6	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Mississippi State vs Kentucky	-1.0W31–17	47.0	W31–17	O	Y
Sat 11/6	Mississippi State at Arkansas	+4.0L28–31	54.0	L28–31	O	Y
Sat 11/13	Mississippi State at Auburn	+6.0W43–34	51.0	W43–34	O	Y
Sat 11/20	Mississippi State vs Tennessee State	-44.0W55–10	56.5	W55–10	O	Y
Thu 11/25	Mississippi State vs Ole Miss	-2.5L21–31	65.0	L21–31	U	N
Tue 12/28	Mississippi State vs Texas Tech	-10.0L7–34	58.5	L7–34	U	N

Vanderbilt 2021 Schedule

Vanderbilt's 2021 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Vanderbilt vs East Tennessee State	-21.0L3–23	45.0	L3–23	U	N
Sat 9/11	Vanderbilt at Colorado State	+6.5W24–21	52.5	W24–21	U	Y
Sat 9/18	Vanderbilt vs Stanford	+13.0L23–41	49.0	L23–41	O	N
Sat 9/25	Vanderbilt vs Georgia	+36.0L0–62	54.5	L0–62	O	N
Sat 10/2	Vanderbilt vs UConn	-14.5W30–28	51.5	W30–28	O	N
Sat 10/9	Vanderbilt at Florida	+39.0L0–42	60.5	L0–42	U	N
Sat 10/16	Vanderbilt at South Carolina	+19.0L20–21	50.0	L20–21	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Vanderbilt vs Mississippi State	+21.0L6–45	53.0	L6–45	U	N
Sat 10/30	Vanderbilt vs Missouri	+16.0L28–37	62.5	L28–37	O	Y
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/13	Vanderbilt vs Kentucky	+21.5L17–34	52.5	L17–34	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Vanderbilt at Ole Miss	+35.5L17–31	66.5	L17–31	U	Y
Sat 11/27	Vanderbilt at Tennessee	+33.0L21–45	65.0	L21–45	O	Y

Advanced Stats

Advanced Analytics Matchup

Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season

Mississippi State PPA Edge

Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree

Elite · 83.1% ATS

PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc

All 4 Agree

→ Mississippi State

Elite · 82.4% ATS

PPA + PPO + Havoc

3 Agree

→ Mississippi State

Elite · 73.9% ATS

PPA + Success Rate

Both Agree

→ Mississippi State

Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength

PPA Overall

Points added per play · Elite predictor

Mississippi State

+0.571

Vanderbilt

+0.273

Mississippi State Edge

PPA Passing

Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor

Mississippi State

+0.708

Vanderbilt

+0.422

Mississippi State Edge

Havoc Total

Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor

Mississippi State

0.155

Vanderbilt

0.146

TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better

Mississippi State Edge

Points Per Opp

Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor

Mississippi State

+8.426

Vanderbilt

+7.298

Mississippi State Edge

Success Rate

Play consistency edge · Solid predictor

Mississippi State

+0.986

Vanderbilt

+0.731

Mississippi State Edge

Field Position

Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor

Mississippi State

70.3

Vanderbilt

75.4

Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position

Mississippi State Edge

Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)

Power Ratings

Team Power Ratings

Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses

Vanderbilt Rated Higher

Overall Power Rating

Mississippi State

-2.1

Vanderbilt

3.7

Offense Rating

Mississippi State

14.2

Vanderbilt

14.6

Defense Rating (lower = better defense)

Mississippi State

16.3

Vanderbilt

10.9

Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate

Momentum Control (CSS)

Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Mississippi State Edge

Avg sequences created per game

Mississippi State #23

1.00

Vanderbilt #131

0.50

Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)

Mississippi State #62

0.67

Vanderbilt #142

2.50

Mississippi State +0.50

CSS Edge (season-to-date)

Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically

Based on 6 games this season

Game Control (GC)

Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Mississippi State Edge

Avg GC score per game (offense)

Mississippi State #1

39.3

Vanderbilt #1

24.9

Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)

Mississippi State #73

46.7

Vanderbilt #130

67.5

Mississippi State +14.4

GC Edge (season-to-date)

Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically

Based on 7 games this season

Spread Context

ATS Historical Context

Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Mississippi State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup

Mississippi State

Mike Leach #1

6–8 (43%) · Yr 2 at school

OC Mike Leach Yr 1 #1

DC Zach Arnett Yr 1 #1

Staff Rating

0.00 #1

Vanderbilt

Clark Lea #1

1–2 (33%) · Yr 1 at school

OC David Raih Yr 1 #1

DC Jesse Minter Yr 1 #1

Staff Rating

0.00 #1

About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓