Sat, Nov 20 2021
·
Week 12
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🏟 Davis Wade Stadium
Starkville, MS
·
Turf
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61,337 cap
Tennessee State✈ 219 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Mississippi State -44
O/U 56.5
consensus
Tennessee State 2021 Schedule
Tennessee State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/20 | Tennessee State at Mississippi State | +44.0L10–55 | 56.5 | L10–55 | O | N |
Mississippi State 2021 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Mississippi State vs Louisiana Tech | -20.5W35–34 | 52.5 | W35–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Mississippi State vs NC State | +1.5W24–10 | 55.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Mississippi State at Memphis | -3.0L29–31 | 63.0 | L29–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Mississippi State vs LSU | +1.5L25–28 | 54.5 | L25–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Mississippi State at Texas A&M | +7.0W26–22 | 45.5 | W26–22 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Mississippi State vs Alabama | +17.5L9–49 | 59.5 | L9–49 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Mississippi State at Vanderbilt | -21.0W45–6 | 53.0 | W45–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Mississippi State vs Kentucky | -1.0W31–17 | 47.0 | W31–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Mississippi State at Arkansas | +4.0L28–31 | 54.0 | L28–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Mississippi State at Auburn | +6.0W43–34 | 51.0 | W43–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Mississippi State vs Tennessee State | -44.0W55–10 | 56.5 | W55–10 | O | Y |
| Thu 11/25 | Mississippi State vs Ole Miss | -2.5L21–31 | 65.0 | L21–31 | U | N |
| Tue 12/28 | Mississippi State vs Texas Tech | -10.0L7–34 | 58.5 | L7–34 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tennessee State Edge
Tennessee State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tennessee State Edge
Tennessee State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Mississippi State
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Mississippi State
98.8 — 0.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Mississippi State won by 45
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Mississippi State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓