Texas Tech at Houston Week 1 College Football Matchup Texas Tech at Houston Matchup - Week 1
Sat, Sep 4 2021 · Week 1 · Neutral Site · 🏟 NRG Stadium Houston, TX · Turf · 72,220 cap
Texas Tech✈ 466 miSame TZ
Away (Neutral)
38 21
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Texas Tech
30
Houston
31
P&R Line Houston -1
P&R Total O/U 60.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Houston -2.5 · O/U 63.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Houston -2.5
O/U 63.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Houston · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas Tech 2021 Schedule
Texas Tech's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Texas Tech vs Houston+2.5W38–2163.0W38–21UY
Sat 9/11Texas Tech vs Stephen F. Austin-31.5W28–2251.5W28–22UN
Sat 9/18Texas Tech vs Florida International-20.5W54–2154.0W54–21OY
Sat 9/25Texas Tech at Texas+9.0L35–7063.0L35–70ON
Sat 10/2Texas Tech at West Virginia+7.5W23–2055.0W23–20UY
Sat 10/9Texas Tech vs TCU+2.5L31–5260.0L31–52ON
Sat 10/16Texas Tech at Kansas-18.5W41–1467.5W41–14UY
Sat 10/23Texas Tech vs Kansas State+1.0L24–2560.5L24–25UY
Sat 10/30Texas Tech at Oklahoma+18.5L21–5267.0L21–52ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/13Texas Tech vs Iowa State+13.0W41–3855.5W41–38OY
Sat 11/20Texas Tech vs Oklahoma State+10.0L0–2355.0L0–23UN
Sat 11/27Texas Tech at Baylor+14.0L24–2751.5L24–27UY
Tue 12/28Texas Tech vs Mississippi State+10.0W34–758.5W34–7UY
Houston 2021 Schedule
Houston's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Houston vs Texas Tech-2.5L21–3863.0L21–38UN
Sat 9/11Houston at Rice-7.5W44–750.0W44–7OY
Sat 9/18Houston vs Grambling-41.0W45–051.5W45–0UY
Sat 9/25Houston vs Navy-20.0W28–2047.0W28–20ON
Fri 10/1Houston at Tulsa+3.0W45–1054.0W45–10OY
Thu 10/7Houston at Tulane-6.5W40–2260.0W40–22OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23Houston vs East Carolina-13.5W31–2456.0W31–24UN
Sat 10/30Houston vs SMU+1.0W44–3761.5W44–37OY
Sat 11/6Houston at South Florida-13.5W54–4253.0W54–42ON
Sat 11/13Houston at Temple-26.0W37–852.5W37–8UY
Fri 11/19Houston vs Memphis-9.0W31–1359.5W31–13UY
Sat 11/27Houston at UConn-32.0W45–1754.5W45–17ON
Sat 12/4Houston at Cincinnati+10.5L20–3552.5L20–35ON
Tue 12/28Houston vs Auburn+2.0W17–1351.5W17–13UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Houston PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Houston
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Houston
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Texas Tech
+0.352
Houston
+0.518
Houston Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
+0.455
Houston
+0.736
Houston Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
0.166
Houston
0.214
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Houston Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Texas Tech
+7.840
Houston
+9.046
Houston Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Texas Tech
+0.821
Houston
+0.872
Houston Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Texas Tech
72.5
Houston
66.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Houston Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Texas Tech Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Texas Tech
27.6
Houston
8.3
Offense Rating
Texas Tech
29.0
Houston
19.8
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Texas Tech
1.3
Houston
11.5
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Texas Tech Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Texas Tech #73
0.00
Houston #28
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #74
0.00
Houston #67
0.00
Texas Tech +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Texas Tech Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Texas Tech #1
0.0
Houston #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Texas Tech #84
0.0
Houston #9
0.0
Texas Tech +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Houston, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Texas Tech
Sonny Cumbie #1
11–14 (44%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Sonny Cumbie Yr 1 #1
DC Keith Patterson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Houston
Dana Holgorsen #1
9–14 (39%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Shannon Dawson Yr 1 #1
DC Doug Belk Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself