West Virginia at Minnesota Week 1 College Football Matchup West Virginia at Minnesota Matchup - Week 1
Wed, Dec 29 2021 · Postseason · Neutral Site · 🏟 Chase Field Phoenix, AZ · Turf · 48,519 cap
West Virginia✈ 1,822 mi-3 hr TZ Minnesota✈ 1,280 mi-2 hr TZ
Away (Neutral)
6 18
Final
Home (Neutral)
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
West Virginia
16
MINN -5
Minnesota
29
P&R Line Minnesota -12.5
P&R Total O/U 45
Confidence 86 High
Vegas Minnesota -5.0 · O/U 44.5
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors West Virginia, while Game Control favors Minnesota. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
West Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Minnesota wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Minnesota -5.0
O/U 44.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Minnesota · 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
🏠 Minnesota 2nd straight Home Game 🚌 West Virginia 2nd straight Road Game
West Virginia 2021 Schedule
West Virginia's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4West Virginia at Maryland-2.5L24–3056.0L24–30UN
Sat 9/11West Virginia vs Long Island University-50.0W66–056.0W66–0OY
Sat 9/18West Virginia vs Virginia Tech-2.0W27–2149.5W27–21UY
Sat 9/25West Virginia at Oklahoma+17.5L13–1656.5L13–16UY
Sat 10/2West Virginia vs Texas Tech-7.5L20–2355.0L20–23UN
Sat 10/9West Virginia at Baylor+1.0L20–4545.0L20–45ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/23West Virginia at TCU+5.0W29–1758.0W29–17UY
Sat 10/30West Virginia vs Iowa State+7.5W38–3149.0W38–31OY
Sat 11/6West Virginia vs Oklahoma State+3.5L3–2448.5L3–24UN
Sat 11/13West Virginia at Kansas State+6.0L17–3447.5L17–34ON
Sat 11/20West Virginia vs Texas-2.5W31–2356.0W31–23UY
Sat 11/27West Virginia at Kansas-15.5W34–2855.5W34–28ON
Tue 12/28West Virginia vs Minnesota+5.0L6–1844.5L6–18UN
Minnesota 2021 Schedule
Minnesota's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Minnesota vs Ohio State+14.0L31–4562.0L31–45OY
Sat 9/11Minnesota vs Miami (OH)-18.5W31–2655.0W31–26ON
Sat 9/18Minnesota at Colorado+2.5W30–049.0W30–0UY
Sat 9/25Minnesota vs Bowling Green-30.5L10–1452.5L10–14UN
Sat 10/2Minnesota at Purdue+2.0W20–1346.0W20–13UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/16Minnesota vs Nebraska+4.5W30–2348.5W30–23OY
Sat 10/23Minnesota vs Maryland-4.0W34–1653.0W34–16UY
Sat 10/30Minnesota at Northwestern-7.5W41–1443.5W41–14OY
Sat 11/6Minnesota vs Illinois-14.5L6–1444.5L6–14UN
Sat 11/13Minnesota at Iowa+4.0L22–2737.5L22–27ON
Sat 11/20Minnesota at Indiana-7.5W35–1443.0W35–14OY
Sat 11/27Minnesota vs Wisconsin+7.0W23–1339.0W23–13UY
Tue 12/28Minnesota vs West Virginia-5.0W18–644.5W18–6UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Minnesota PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Minnesota
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
West Virginia
+0.295
Minnesota
+0.361
Minnesota Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia
+0.402
Minnesota
+0.594
Minnesota Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
West Virginia
0.162
Minnesota
0.168
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Minnesota Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
West Virginia
+7.942
Minnesota
+6.918
West Virginia Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
West Virginia
+0.806
Minnesota
+0.844
Minnesota Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
West Virginia
72.9
Minnesota
68.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Minnesota Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Minnesota Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
West Virginia
1.2
Minnesota
6.0
Offense Rating
West Virginia
17.8
Minnesota
16.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
West Virginia
16.6
Minnesota
10.9
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? West Virginia Edge
Avg sequences created per game
West Virginia #65
1.09
Minnesota #52
1.08
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #26
0.73
Minnesota #11
0.42
West Virginia +0.01
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Minnesota Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
West Virginia #1
44.5
Minnesota #1
56.4
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
West Virginia #78
41.6
Minnesota #29
28.0
Minnesota +12.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
13–12 (52%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Gerad Parker Yr 1 #1
DC ShaDon Brown Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Minnesota
P. J. Fleck #1
28–20 (58%) · Yr 5 at school
OC Mike Sanford Jr. Yr 1 #1
DC Joe Rossi Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself