Sat, Nov 20 2021
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium
Morgantown, WV
·
Turf
·
60,000 cap
Texas✈ 1,193 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Texas
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Texas entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Texas wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Texas wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
West Virginia -2.5
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → West Virginia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Texas 2021 Schedule
Texas's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Texas vs Louisiana | -8.5W38–18 | 58.0 | W38–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Texas at Arkansas | -6.0L21–40 | 57.5 | L21–40 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Texas vs Rice | -26.0W58–0 | 52.0 | W58–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Texas vs Texas Tech | -9.0W70–35 | 63.0 | W70–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Texas at TCU | -3.5W32–27 | 65.5 | W32–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Texas vs Oklahoma | +4.0L48–55 | 65.5 | L48–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Texas vs Oklahoma State | -3.0L24–32 | 61.0 | L24–32 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Texas at Baylor | +2.0L24–31 | 61.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Texas at Iowa State | +6.0L7–30 | 59.5 | L7–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Texas vs Kansas | -31.0L56–57 | 61.5 | L56–57 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Texas at West Virginia | +2.5L23–31 | 56.0 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/26 | Texas vs Kansas State | -3.0W22–17 | 54.5 | W22–17 | U | Y |
West Virginia 2021 Schedule
West Virginia's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | West Virginia at Maryland | -2.5L24–30 | 56.0 | L24–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | West Virginia vs Long Island University | -50.0W66–0 | 56.0 | W66–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | West Virginia vs Virginia Tech | -2.0W27–21 | 49.5 | W27–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | West Virginia at Oklahoma | +17.5L13–16 | 56.5 | L13–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | West Virginia vs Texas Tech | -7.5L20–23 | 55.0 | L20–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | West Virginia at Baylor | +1.0L20–45 | 45.0 | L20–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | West Virginia at TCU | +5.0W29–17 | 58.0 | W29–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | West Virginia vs Iowa State | +7.5W38–31 | 49.0 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | West Virginia vs Oklahoma State | +3.5L3–24 | 48.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | West Virginia at Kansas State | +6.0L17–34 | 47.5 | L17–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | West Virginia vs Texas | -2.5W31–23 | 56.0 | W31–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | West Virginia at Kansas | -15.5W34–28 | 55.5 | W34–28 | O | N |
| Tue 12/28 | West Virginia vs Minnesota | +5.0L6–18 | 44.5 | L6–18 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ West Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ West Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ West Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Texas Edge
Texas +0.19
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Texas Edge
Texas +24.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Texas with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Texas
Steve Sarkisian #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kyle Flood
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Kwiatkowski
Yr 1
#1
West Virginia
Neal Brown #1
13–12 (52%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Gerad Parker
Yr 1
#1
DC
ShaDon Brown
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓